Fed concerned about stimulus side effects

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WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned about the potential risks of the U.S. central bank's asset purchases on financial markets, but look set to continue its open-ended stimulus program for now.

Minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting showed a growing reticence about further increases in the central bank's $2.9 trillion balance sheet, which it expanded sharply in response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009.

"Several (officials) thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet," the minutes said.

Wall Street picked up on the report's hawkish tone, with stock prices drifting lower after the announcement, while the dollar extended gains against the euro.

"The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting revealed a somewhat surprising level of concern among the ranks of central bankers regarding the long-term impact of the bank's asset purchase program, or quantitative easing," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington D.C.

Still, the Fed appeared likely to continue buying assets for the foreseeable future, having announced in December it was extending monthly purchases of $40 billion in mortgage securities and also buying $45 billion in Treasuries each month.

A few of the voting members on the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee thought asset buying would be warranted until about the end of 2013. A few others highlighted the need for further large-scale stimulus but did not specify an amount or time frame.

Fed officials generally agreed that the labor market outlook was not likely to improve without further nudging from the monetary authorities.

The U.S. economy expanded a respectable 3.1 percent in the third quarter on an annualized basis, but growth is believed to have slowed sharply to barely above 1 percent in the last three months of the year.

Data on Thursday showed a solid gain of 215,000 new private sector jobs for December, while analysts polled by Reuters last week were looking for a rise of 150,000 new jobs in the Labor Department's official survey, due out on Friday.

In the December meeting, the Fed also launched a new framework of policy thresholds, numerical guideposts that are supposed to give markets and the public a clearer idea of how policymakers will react to incoming economic data.

Officials say they will keep interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent for as long as estimates of medium-run inflation do not exceed 2.5 percent.

The minutes suggested it took officials some time to build a consensus around the idea.

"A few participants expressed a preference for using a qualitative description of the economic indicators influencing the Committee's thinking," the minutes said.

U.S. unemployment has come down steadily after hitting a peak of 10 percent in late 2009, but remains elevated at 7.7 percent.

Fed officials noted worries about the looming "fiscal cliff," which was dealt with only partly in an agreement earlier this week, were hurting the confidence of businesses and households.

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Economists annoy global effects of Japan quake

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The global economic impact of earthquakes and nuclear crisis of Japan can go also predict modest GDP on the most relevant number crunchers.

Macroeconomists have largely concluded that Japan is no more than a few tenths percent shave off world economic growth, although it is the world's third largest economy and is expected to slip in a short recession.

Hung Tran, Deputy Managing Director of the Institute of international finance, said the impact of direct GDP from Japan is most likely "small" and reversible "be, but the indirect effects of potentially large and long-lasting."

The IIF market monitoring group, the Bank Manager, and former politician, warned last week that Japan investors in a higher "uncertainty premium," factor, until the price of oil and other assets would drive can cause.

Distribution ? can fears of unrest in the Middle East and oil - increases already about violence in Libya get a long-term boost as Japan prompts experience a global re-think of nuclear power.

"We wanted to have a nuclear renaissance," said URI Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment for international peace, and former Director of international trade for the World Bank.

"If this stops the nuclear renaissance, then there is an increase in the demand for alternatives." Oil one of them, ", added Dadush."

The IIF said would have a sustained increase of energy prices of "serious consequences for global growth and inflation", the IIF said.

Higher inflation connections emerging market difficulties in with pressure on prices and could be advanced economy to consider central bankers, tightening of monetary policy ahead of schedule to the IIF said.

Even before the earthquake was inflation complicate monetary policy. Minutes of the Bank of England's latest policy setting meeting, in due course on Wednesday, are expected to three of nine members of the Committee voted for a rate hike show.

British inflation data, due on Tuesday, will probably show a big jump in the consumer index linked, although these are figures for February, far before the earthquake.

Look economic even backward-looking than usual in fact, that disaster has 11 March Japan this month batch of data. For example U.S. durable goods orders for February can strongly in Thursday's report look, but that says nothing about what happened in March, when some manufacturers could get not enough parts from Japan.

Another Japan factor that can show hit not as direct GDP is the currency volatility. The Group of seven advanced economies appeared on Friday to try, the yen rise, Cap mark their first intervention in more than a decade.

On the surface, this may as an aggressive response to a problem, not to do that, more than dent GDP is expected. Eswar Prasad, an economist Brookings institution that teaches international trade policy at Cornell University said the concern was that extreme currency moves to restrict trade itself.

Global shippers have received also a bit nervous hedge their currency against wild swings, and private trade credit problems providers, he said.

The yen intervention was that the G7 leaders trying to buy "a level of insurance", and they can buy it now relatively cheap, Prasad said.

Dadush, Carnegie Economist, said the G7 was move a quick and effective way to cool speculation in the financial markets.

"As in tennis, a high game of proportion of is it," he said.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

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