Showing posts with label slowing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label slowing. Show all posts

Friday, July 6

Slowing economy can force fed to act

Slowing economy can force fed to act

Win Mcnamee / Getty Images

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill earlier this month.

With the dark cloud Europe's current financial crisis still hangs of the financial system of the world opened the Federal Reserve a two-day meeting Tuesday with speculation swirling that politicians could announce more stimulus to boost the U.S. economy.

A decisive Greek choice over the weekend makes it easier to fears of a looming financial disaster in the eurozone victory new democracy, to leave a centre-right party, which remain supported, Greece in the Monetary Union. This means that now at least investors stop can thoughts about the market chaos that left a Greek decision of the euro zone would follow.

Now sets the focus on the fed and how it could play his next hand.

Recent reports, including two straight months weak employment growth, suggest that economic growth is slowed down again after a tepid recovery. The stage for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke central bankers that will approve more impetus, to questions although the possibilities are limited. In testimony said in this month is to be the Fed Bernanke if necessary provide.

Opinions are divided about what the Fed will do.

Some economists expect that extend makers "Operation twist", a program launched in last fall that the composition of government bonds by the Fed of Sportwetten assets for long-term investment kept fits. The idea is, push down long-term interest rates, making it easier for businesses and consumers credit to get. The program is June 30 expire, although the Fed could decide, beyond at this point.

Others hope program, known as "quantitative easing", QE, in which the Fed essentially prints money for long-term mortgage or Government bonds to buy for something stronger, such as an other massive bond buying.

That would be controversial, because previous efforts had a questionable success rate and it runs the risk of inflation down the road because it increases the money supply. Also, economists say the Fed is expected to want something in his arsenal to abide, if the Economic Outlook further deteriorated in the course of the summer.

Richmond Fed President is an extension of "operation twist" probably first step after Al Broaddus.

"I think if there is a significant risk and action is required, they have to do something this week" Broaddus told CNBC. "My guess is that it is some sort of change the operation twist."

He said that the focus of the meeting would be domestic U.S. conditions with some discussion of the eurozone crisis.

Barclays Capital strategist Alan James and Edmund Shing expect an extension of the Fed operation twist, weakness in manufacturing output and consumer sentiment on.

"The soft patch in U.S., holds major economic data" she wrote in a research note Monday.

The only other options open for the Fed is adjusting the interest rates which are already at record low levels close to zero. In January, the Fed said that it plans hold to get prices until the end of 2014 to the economic recovery. The Fed would have to signal that she is planning to hold prices even further in the future now.

The worsening debt crisis in Europe and fears whether Congress will keep in the year 2013-on tax increases and Government, the cost-cutting measures,-also known as the "fiscal cliff"-should start on the trust of consumers and the economy, with a weight of are.

Evidence that Europe's fear of the investors suffer, have a negative impact on the US economy will be, yet not long finished were seen Monday in the Spanish borrowing costs, with 10-year bond yields rose beat 7.30 percent-the highest in the euro area history and forces of the movement, the other struggling eurozone Nations to seek an international bailout.

Yet the unrest in Europe said not too much should factor in the Fed plans this week Dino Kos, a former Vice President New York Fed. Weakness in Europe should already be included in the Fed forecast, he told CNBC.

"It really affect their thinking should not although the situation become still worse," he said. "Is the way it should impact the European slowdown affects US growth on their thinking, and comes up to such a degree then the growth, they need to deal with it?"

Kos said that the best position for the Fed this week would be fire, keep the possible negative consequences given the fiscal cliff.

"Do you want the Federal Reserve have some reserve?", he said that there are many uncertainties in connection with the fiscal cliff, given the timing, and the uncertainty of what will be the political situation at the end of the year.

"I would say that they should wait," he said.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Thursday, July 14

China raises prices, shrugs off growth slowing

Kevin Yao and Aileen Wang

Beijing (Reuters) - China interest rates for the third time raised this year on Wednesday, to clarify that inflation remains tame top priority, even as growth step of its huge economy facilitates gently.


The increase in the credit and deposit rates 25 basis points underlined China's quiet confidence, which is resistant enough to endure to more restrictive monetary policy of the world's second largest economy and is not vulnerable to the hard landing, that some investors fear.


China beat analysts close to, or even at the end of a cycle of rate increases and which was the latest move a preventive strike, before an another big jump in inflation data next week depositors provide to low income increased.


"Today's rate increase suggests that China's June remains inflation higher than might be expected and the second quarter GDP, solid, with our expectations", said Ligang Liu, head of greater China economics at ANZ in Hong Kong.


"The PBOC will help the interest-rate hike to optimize, their monetary policy by alleviate negative real interest rate problem to an outflow of deposits from the banking system to prevent the deterioration."


The latest move raised China's benchmark 6.56 percent and its one-year deposit reference rate by 3.5 percent a year lending rate, said the Central Bank.


The increases take effect Thursday, the Central Bank said in a brief statement on its website.


Response to concerns that this latest monetary tightening an already sluggish world economy will choke sold after the announcement, risk-weighted assets, particularly those with direct links to China's growth as the Aussie dollar.


China watchers could not agree whether is it more rate rises in the second half of the year. The people's Bank of China (PBOC) has banks reserve requirements nine times in this rate rises triggered in his nine-month cycle of the tightening of monetary conditions.


"China's inflation is almost to the end of battle." "There are already indications that the pressures that come", said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. "Today's rate increase therefore the last in the cycle may have been"


GROWTH AND INFLATION


Hopes that close to a pause in the tightening of the PBOC may be considered a positive for stocks and could keep the rise in the Yuan onshore swap rates. Such expectations have helped, the Shanghai composite index bounce from nine month lows hit in June.


The world's second-largest economy expanded by more than 10 percent last year but has cooled down in 2011. First quarter growth was 9.7 per cent and data next week are expected, to the tempo eased to display 9.4 percent in the second quarter.


Evidence is growing that China's large manufacturing sector to lose momentum at home by both stricter policies and weakening of demand from abroad.


A survey of purchasing managers showed expanded the factory sector at its weakest pace in 28 months in June, mainly due to a drop in new orders. Many analysts estimate that the pace is a business, the extension on average to about 9 percent and industrial growth of around 13 percent.


In addition, a double-digit increase in wages should be included in already strong domestic demand.


With U.S. interest rates close to zero, Beijing is to ensure that it could attract more hedge funds in China, if that is too far prices. That would aggravate inflation the problem of excess liquidity and more fuel.


Just as there are insert fight with a negative real rate of return on their cash in banks to appease.


China's inflation accelerated a 34-month high of 5.5 percent in may as higher food prices and red-hot real estate market price pressure kept alive.


A Reuters poll forecast data due on July 15 will show that inflation rose to 6.3 percent in June-its highest level since mid-2008. Many economists estimate that inflation will reach its peak June or July.


Beijing is particularly sensitive to rising prices, the may be stirring the currency Union and threaten its leadership.


Wang Jun, an economist at CCIEE, a Government think tank, said that Beijing is again rate raise inflation, more stubborn than expected forced feel.


"When inflation comes down, there is no need to raise rates." But when prices rebound, could it further price increases, "he said."


(Writing by Koh GUI Qing and Vidya Ranganathan;) (Editing by Ruth Pitchford and Neil Fullick)


Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

Site Search