US economic growth slows in the first quarter

12:30 PM economic, first, growth, quarter, slows No Comments

Chris Keane / Reuters

Helping out the economy. Government data showed the U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter, but consumer spending helped soften the blow.

By msnbc.com staff and news wires
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2012, increasing concerns about the health of the recovery. The blow was softened by a rise in consumer spending, however.

The Commerce Department, in its initial reading of how the economy fared as the new year began, reported Friday that gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first three months of the year. That's down from a 3.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter and below economists' expectations of a 2.5 percent pace.

A surge in consumer spending took some of the sting from the report. Growth was still stronger than analysts' predictions early in the quarter for an expansion below 1.5 percent.

"Certainly a bit of a mixed picture, a disappointment on the headline coming in at 2.2 versus expectations of 2.5. Personal consumption was positive. But overall weaker-than-expected GDP," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

Although the details were mixed, the GDP report offered a somewhat better picture of growth compared with the fourth quarter, when inventory building accounted for nearly two thirds of the economy's growth. In the first quarter, demand from consumers took up the slack.

Consumer spending which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 2.9 percent rate - the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2010. That compared to a 2.1 percent rise in the fourth quarter.

There were some signs of underlying strength, with even home construction rising at its fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010, thanks to the unusually warm winter.

But business spending fell for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2009, with investment in equipment and software rising at its slowest pace since the recession ended.

Business spending fell at a 2.1 percent pace after rising 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

The report will probably not change views on monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday expressed comfort with the current stance of Fed policy, but held out the prospect of more bond buying if the economy deteriorated.

Americans stepped up spending on automobiles in the first quarter, with motor vehicle sales rising by the most in four years. Part of that reflected pent-up demand after last year's earthquake and tsunami in Japan disrupted supplies and left showrooms bereft of popular models.

And encouraged by a spurt in job growth, some households may have replaced older vehicles after tightening their belts during the 2007-09 recession. Motor vehicle output contributed 1.12 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth.

But with the labor market showing early signs of fatigue after employment growth averaged 246,000 per month between December and February, consumer spending could soften in the second quarter.

Some gauges of regional factory activity eased as the second quarter started, and consumer confidence ebbed. In addition, first-time applications for unemployment benefits have spiked in recent weeks, although many economists pin the rise on seasonal quirks.

While the unseasonably warm weather helped the economy by boosting home building and renovations, it undercut demand for utilities, spending at ski resorts and sales of winter apparel.

As a result, weather was probably not the biggest contributor to growth during the quarter.

Inventories also helped GDP growth, just not as much as in the fourth quarter. Inventories increased $69.5 billion after rising $52.2 billion in the fourth quarter.

The change in inventories contributed just over half a percentage point to GDP growth compared to 1.81 percentage points in the fourth quarter.

Excluding inventories, GDP is rose at a 1.6 percent rate. In the fourth quarter, the comparable figure was just 1.1 percent.

Elsewhere, growth in the first quarter was held back by a another drop in government defense spending, which confounded expectations for a strong rebound. An increase in exports was offset by a rise imports, causing trade to have virtually no impact on growth.

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Reuters contributed to this report.

CNBC's Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman break down the first quarter's GDP results and discuss its impact on the markets and what it indicates about the health of the U.S. economic recovery.

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Breakneck growth in China slows down slightly

1:21 PM breakneck, China, growth, slightly, slows No Comments

BEIJING - China's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009, but always still managed, faster than expected to expand in the second quarter. The growth eased fears of a hard landing and strengthened Beijing's determination to fight persistently high inflation.

China's Statistics Bureau said on Wednesday that the prices to stabilize the top priority remained, although a "complex and volatile" global economic growth, complications of the political decisions threat.

Gross domestic product in the second quarter grew by 9.5 percent over the previous year by more than the forecasts of economists for 9.4 per cent growth, supported by solid domestic consumption and investment.

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But that was still was the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2009, when the world economy from the worst recession in 80 years.

Some cooling erwarteten-and even willkommen--, because China raised interest rates and clamped down on bank lending to try the inflation to facilitate, a three-year high in June has taken. The stronger than expected numbers indicate GDP there that Beijing can have more room for dragging without slowing down the growth.

"These are very good numbers,", said Liu Li gang, an economist with ANZ in Hong Kong.

"This is perhaps the reason why the (Central Bank) last week increased interest rates." "They show that they fear no significant slowdown in the economy."

For investors worried that Beijing's pulling campaign too heavy a toll on the fastest growing major economy in the world could the figures offered some reassurance. Industrial production in June was also stronger than expected is growing at its fastest pace in more than a year.

Asian shares and metals all rose Australian dollars.

China's GDP in the April to June rose 2.2 percent compared to the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, a slight revival in pace of 2.1 percent in the first quarter.

Chinese officials noticed hawks note in the last days, bearing in mind the risk that inflation could fan unrest overheating.

Although many economists, that overall inflation pressures easier in the second half of the year believe prices are increased for popular staples such as pork and it takes time for them to go back.

The Central Bank and the forecast expected a narrow majority of analysts to raise interest rates again this year increasing Bank reserve ratios, a Reuters poll last week.

Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for China's Statistics Bureau, said inflation stabilization was the main objective, and politics would be "targeted, flexible and effective," in reference to the recent comments by Prime Minister Jiabao Wen.

"It is not easy and fast to maintain economic growth, when the overall situation is complex and volatile China has done a great job," Sheng said.

Europe's sovereign debt troubles and a decline in the US economy means that two of the best export customers in China have to contend. In June, orders slipped export a manufacturing survey showed already in July, the questions about China's growth prospects raised.

But Wednesday figures suggested that domestic demand remains robust. Final consumption growth have 4.6 percentage points to the first half, while easily exports subtracts, Bureau said China's statistics.

Analysts say China's economy is a rate would be with the the equivalent of adding the Switzerland GDP for the 6-trillion dollar economy to grow well above 9 percent this year.

Still say weak demand growth to slacken can cause in China's Western export markets in the third quarter from the second, they.

Rebalancing
Industrial production rose 15.1 percent in June a year earlier, the strongest growth since May 2010. It also marked a sharp hope by May 13.3 percent and beat market expectations of 13.1 percent.

The growth figures underlined the resilience of the world's second largest economy, thanks to the rapid urbanisation of the country, and could soothe investor concerns about a sharp slowdown in the global demand for commodities delle would.

An economist with IFR, a unit of Thomson Reuters said "The data should also help to which wild fears about an economic collapse in China to dispel", George Worthington.

Capital investment grew 25.6 per cent in the first six months a year earlier, while 16.8 percent expanded the retail sales, show that domestic demand still relatively well despite tightening policy stopped.

"The economic growth data are very optimistic and industrial production is clearly stronger than expected," said Xu Biao, an economist with China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen. "It's all about the expectations as Chinese imports and (purchasing managers survey) were quite weak in June."

Increased demand at home helps to isolate not only China from the global turmoil, but offers a bit of a buffer for the rest of the world and evidence that good makes Beijing promise from export-oriented growth. But it can increase also price pressure.

However, inflation of Beijing remains top priority policies should avoid that economic growth, said large swings Premier Wen in comments released on Tuesday.

In June, he signals that the country would fight in the year 2011 to meet its average inflation target 4 percent. Monthly consumer price numbers show public inflation 5.4 per cent in the first half of the year.

Academic consultant of the people's Bank of China was quoted by State television on Wednesday that the rate of inflation may have reached in June, when it hit 6.4 percent.

Li Daokui, Member of the Central Bank of monetary policy Committee, said that the full-year inflation rate could be around 4.8 per cent.

Last Wednesday, China increased rates by 25 basis points-the third such as this year-increase the deposit took the a year discount rate by 3.5 percent.

The Central Bank has raised benchmark interest rates five times since October and banks required reserve ratio-its bisher-preferred political tool - nine times removed.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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