Showing posts with label warns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label warns. Show all posts

Monday, February 27

Bernanke warns of threat to economy from Europe

Bernanke warns of threat to economy from Europe

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke discusses his outlook on the economy, noting a sluggish labor market and increasing debt risking, producing serious economic consequences.

Yuri Gripas / Reuters


U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke arrives to testify at the House Budget committee hearing on the state of the Economy on Capitol Hill in Washington February 2, 2012.


By Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press


WASHINGTON — Ben Bernanke defended the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates at record-low levels for the next three years, during a contentious hearing before federal lawmakers.


The Fed chief told the House Budget Committee Thursday that the central bank's plan is an appropriate step to combat high unemployment while inflation is stable.


Bernanke was challenged immediately on the issue by the panel's chairman, Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, who said the Fed's move would risk higher inflation and hurt growth.


"I think this policy runs the great risk of fueling asset bubbles, destabilizing prices and eventually eroding the value of the dollar," Ryan told Bernanke. "The prospect of all three is adding to uncertainty and holding our economy back."


Bernanke disagreed. He said prices have stabilized since spiking in early 2011 and the dollar has shown no signs of weakening.


The Federal Reserve chairman testified one week after the Fed signaled that a full recovery could take at least three more years. As a result, the Fed said it doesn't plan to raise its benchmark interest rate from a record low before late 2014 at the earliest.


The questions from lawmakers covered a range of topics, from Europe's debt crisis to the surging federal deficit.


Bernanke didn't stray far from remarks he made last week after the Fed's policy meeting. He said the economy has shown improvement, but that the pace has been frustratingly slow. He noted that many threats remain, including Europe's debt crisis and the nation's rising debt.


"We still have a long way to go before the labor market can be said to be operating normally," Bernanke told the committee.


Bernanke generally received praise from Democrats, while Republicans were more critical.


One member even accused Bernanke and the Fed of overstepping their authority.


Rep. Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican, said the Fed ventured into Congress's territory when it issued a white paper last month exploring proposals to rescue the troubled housing market. He compared the action to lawmakers approving a resolution instructing the Fed on monetary policy — the Fed's use of interest rates to try to boost or slow the economy.


"I was taken aback when the Fed issued an unsolicited white paper on housing policy and it mirrored in many ways the administration's policies on housing," Garrett, scolded Bernanke.


Bernanke apologized if Garrett felt the Fed went too far. He said that the weak housing sector was holding back overall growth and that this was of great concern for the Fed. He said the central bank did not endorse any actions but instead just explored various policy options.


"We were trying to provide pros and cons," Bernanke said.


Still, much of the morning was spent debating the Fed's policies.


Ryan criticized the Fed's decision to establish an annual inflation target of 2 percent. He said Bernanke seemed willing to accept higher inflation in order to get lower unemployment.


Bernanke said the Fed would not waiver in its efforts to maintain low inflation, believing that provided the best framework for full employment.


Rep. Diane Black said the Fed wasn't showing enough concern about the impact low interest rates were having on people who keep their money in conservative investments, such as savings accounts and CDs.


The interest on those investments hasn't kept pace with inflation.


Bernanke said the Fed was trying to get the weak economy moving and that raising interest rates could trigger a recession, which would hurt all investors.


A few questions touched on transcripts released last month that showed the Fed was slow to recognize the severity of the housing crisis in 2006. Bernanke said the Fed had learned a lot of lessons since then.


"While I can never promise that we will not have another financial crisis, I think we have made a lot of progress in how we monitor financial situations," he told the lawmakers.


Bernanke urged lawmakers to balance their desire to cut deficits with policies that could help boost the weak U.S. economy in the short run.


Earlier this week, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit will top $1 trillion for a fourth straight year and could stay around that level for years.


A key reason the deficit has surged in the past four years is that the government collected less tax revenue. In part, that's because the economy has yet to regain the millions of jobs lost during the Great Recession.

Tuesday, February 14

Sony sees $2.9 billion loss, new CEO warns of pain

TOKYO — Ailing Japanese electronics giant Sony Corp warned it was heading for a bigger-than-expected $2.9 billion annual loss, presenting a daunting task for incoming CEO Kazuo Hirai, who vowed to move quickly to turn things around.


Overtaken by more innovative rivals such as Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics over the past decade, Sony posted a $2.1 billion net loss for October-December, normally a strong quarter boosted by year-end holiday sales, as it battled a strong yen, flooding in Thailand that ruptured supply chains, and a weak economy.


It also took a one-off charge for exiting a flat panel joint venture with Samsung, and said sales dropped 17 percent to 1.82 trillion yen.


The forecast for a 220 billion yen ($2.9 billion) net loss for the year to March, Sony's fourth straight year of red ink, was close to double what the market had expected, and revealed the task ahead for Hirai, who replaces Howard Stringer as CEO in April.


Hirai, a 51-year old Sony veteran known for reviving the PlayStation gaming operations through aggressive cost-cutting, said he would not hesitate to scale back or withdraw from businesses if they were not competitive.


"I have a very strong sense of crisis about the environment surrounding us," Hirai told a news conference. "We cannot be afraid to make painful choices for the future of Sony. Our rivals and the operating environment won't wait for us."


There is unlikely to be a honeymoon period for Hirai, who is under immediate pressure to sort out the ailing TV business after it fell behind South Korean rivals such as Samsung in a market where prices are tumbling.


Above all, Hirai will strive to recapture the innovative flair that led Sony to come up with the Walkman personal music-player in the 1980s and the PlayStation in the 1990s, and regain ground lost since then to Apple and Samsung whose iPhones, iPads and Galaxy gadgets are snapped up by consumers.


Some analysts believe Hirai -- 51, tall, urbane and a fluent English speaker -- can rekindle the flame, saying he has a good grasp of the overall business and is likely to know how to break down its silos and integrate its divisions.


Others are less optimistic about his chances.


"It won't be easy for Sony to regain its lost ground under new leadership, as its overall competitiveness has sharply weakened," said Kim Young-Chan, analyst at Shinhan Investment Corp in Seoul.


"It's got structural problems that will take years to fix.


"It's not just Sony, but Japanese IT firms have similar problems. They are failing to innovate and produce industry-leading products in almost every major area - from TVs to displays, tablets and smartphones."


Hisashi Kuroda, general manager of equity investment at Meiji Yasuda Asset Management in Tokyo said Sony had to take tough decisions.


"Unless they do radical reforms, like the ones that would put everything completely upside down, Sony may not be able even to make profits."


A chief concept in Hirai's strategy hinges on merging Sony's robust roster of entertainment properties - including singers Kelly Clarkson and Michael Jackson, and the "Spider-Man" and "Men in Black" film franchises - with its Vaio, Bravia and other electronics brands, in an effort to boost sales.


He said the TV business would be crucial to this "convergence" strategy, brushing aside suggestions it may need to pull out of the market even with the business set to lose 220-230 billion yen this financial year.


"There's still a chance in home electronics and I don't think Sony should quit TV's, but unfortunately I can imagine the day may come when they will pull the plug on the business," said a former engineer and executive at Sony.


"This is because when you keep making losses and you have no fresh ideas, that becomes the easy choice."


Chief Financial Officer Masaru Kato said Sony aimed to halve losses on flat TVs in the next financial year from April, when as a company it hopes to make an operating profit of about 200 billion yen.


Hirai singled out medical as a potential core business for the future, but he declined to comment on any possible investment in troubled endoscope maker Olympus Corp.


Welsh-born Stringer, a former journalist who ran U.S. broadcaster CBS, was brought in as a rare foreign CEO in Japan to shake things up, but many analysts see his major achievement as cost-cutting.


Sony's shares have lost nearly two-thirds of their value since Stringer, who turns 70 this month, took the helm as CEO and chairman in 2005.


Stringer sold off TV factories in Spain, Slovakia and Mexico and outsourced more than half of its production to other companies, including Hon Hai Precision Industry, the contract electronics maker whose key customer is Apple.


Recently, Sony exited an LCD panel venture with Samsung, enabling it to obtain screens for its TVs more cheaply. It also agreed to buy out Ericsson's half of their smartphone venture for $1.5 billion to shore up its position in a market where Apple and Samsung have become leaders.


Hirai was effectively anointed as Stringer's successor last March when he was promoted to head Sony's consumer products and services businesses, which produce the bulk of Sony's $85 billion in annual sales.


"They've been grooming him for a while," said Dan Ernst, Hudson Square analyst. "I think he will carry on the plan for Sony - as difficult as it is."


The last year has been brutal for many Japanese companies, hit by a strong yen that hurt exports, and two natural disasters - the March earthquake in Japan and the Thai floods.


Stringer said those disasters and the Lehman shock of 2008 had hit Sony hard and masked much of the progress made during his watch.


"If we hadn't reformed Sony as we did, can you imagine where we would be today," Stringer said. "I rest my case."


Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters.

Saturday, January 28

World Bank warns of downturn worse than '08

BEIJING — The World Bank warned Wednesday of a possible slump in global economic growth and urged developing countries to prepare for shocks that could be more severe than the 2008 crisis.


For the United States, the bank cut this year's growth forecast to 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent and for 2013 to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent.


As reasons, it cited the anticipated global slowdown and the on-going fight in Washington over spending and taxes.


The bank also cut its growth forecast for developing countries this year to 5.4 percent from 6.2 percent and for developed countries to 1.4 percent from 2.7 percent.


For the 17 countries that use the euro currency, it forecast a contraction, cutting their growth outlook to -0.3 percent from 1.8 percent.


Global growth could be hurt by a recession in Europe and a slowdown in India, Brazil and other developing countries, the Washington-based bank said.


It said conditions might worsen if more European countries are unable to raise money in financial markets.


"The global economy is entering into a new phase of uncertainty and danger," said the bank's chief economist, Justin Yifu Lin. "The risks of a global freezing up of capital markets as well as a global crisis similar to what happened in September 2008 are real."


Separately Wednesday, the government of Germany — Europe's biggest economy — announced it had lowered its growth forecast for this year from 1 percent to 0.7 percent. However, it also predicted growth of 1.6 percent in 2013.


Developing countries that have enjoyed relatively strong growth while the United States and Europe struggled might be hit hard, Lin said. He said they should line up financing in advance to cover budget deficits, review the health of their banks and emphasize spending on social safety nets.


Many governments are in a weaker position than they were to respond to the 2008 global crisis because their debts and budget deficits are bigger, Lin said at a news conference.


In the event of a major crisis, "no country will be spared," Lin said. "The downturn is likely to be longer and deeper than the last one."


The bank's outlook — in its "Global Economic Prospects" report issued twice a year — adds to mounting gloom amid Europe's debt crisis and high U.S. unemployment.


"It is very likely that most European countries, including Germany, entered recession in the fourth quarter of last year," said Hans Timmer, the World Bank's director of development projects.


Investors have cut investments in developing countries by 45 percent in the second half of last year, compared with the same period in 2010, Timmer said.


The report follows similar warnings about the global economy by its sister organization, the International Monetary Fund, and private sector forecasters.


Global growth might suffer from the interaction of Europe's troubles and efforts by China, India, South Africa, Russia and Turkey to cool rapid growth and inflation with interest rate hikes and other measures, the bank said.


China's expansion slowed to a 2 1/2-year low of 8.9 percent in the three months ending in December from the previous quarter's 9.1 percent.


As Europe weakens, developing countries could find "their slowdown might be larger than is necessary to cope with inflation pressures," Lin said.


Developing countries hurt
A global downturn would hurt developing countries by driving down prices for metals, farm goods and other commodities and demand for other exoprts, the World Bank said.


Slower growth is already visible in weakening trade and commodity prices, the World Bank said.


Global exports of goods and services expanded an estimated 6.6 percent in 2011, barely half the previous year's 12.4 percent rate, the bank said. It said the growth rate is expected to fall to 4.7 percent this year.


Prices of energy, metals and farm products are down 10 to 25 percent from their peaks in early 2011, Timmer said.


The United States is already feeling some pain from Europe's crisis. Exports to Europe fell 6 percent in November, the Commerce Department said last week.


AP Economics Writer Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington contributed.


Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Wednesday, December 28

OECD warns on Europe's economy

PARIS — The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is warning of a "marked slowdown" in eurozone economies next year and says the European Union needs to clarify its anti-crisis measures.


In an update Monday of economic forecasts timed to coincide with this week's meeting of the Group of 20 major economies, the OECD says "patches of mild negative growth" are likely in the eurozone in 2012.


It says economic growth in the eurozone will stall at 0.3 percent next year, after just 1.6 percent growth this year.


The Paris-based OECD says "detailed information is needed" on how the EU will implement the package of measures announced last week aimed at resolving the European debt crisis, to prevent a repeat of the global crisis that hammered economies three years ago.


Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Sunday, November 20

OECD warns on Europe's economy

PARIS — The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is warning of a "marked slowdown" in eurozone economies next year and says the European Union needs to clarify its anti-crisis measures.


In an update Monday of economic forecasts timed to coincide with this week's meeting of the Group of 20 major economies, the OECD says "patches of mild negative growth" are likely in the eurozone in 2012.


It says economic growth in the eurozone will stall at 0.3 percent next year, after just 1.6 percent growth this year.


The Paris-based OECD says "detailed information is needed" on how the EU will implement the package of measures announced last week aimed at resolving the European debt crisis, to prevent a repeat of the global crisis that hammered economies three years ago.


Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Saturday, November 19

EU warns of possible recession in eurozone

BRUSSELS — The European Union has warned that the 17-country eurozone could slip back into recession next year as the debt crisis shows alarming signs of spinning out of control.


The EU's economic watchdog, the European Commission, said its central forecast is that the eurozone will grow by only a paltry 0.5 percent in 2012. That's way down on the 1.8 percent prediction it made as recently as September.


The sharp cut in the forecast comes as the eurozone's debt crisis has spread alarmingly to Italy, the single currency bloc's third-largest economy. The interest rate on Italy's ten-year bonds has reached the same levels that forced Greece, Portugal and Ireland to request multibillion euro bailouts. Speculation that Premier Silvio Berlusconi will officially resign within days and be replaced by leading economist and former Commissioner Mario Monti has helped calm the market mood somewhat Thursday.


Greece, meanwhile, remains in political chaos as party leaders have failed for several days to appoint an interim governments, putting the country in serious danger of defaulting on its massive debts before the end of the year.


"Growth has stalled in Europe, and there is a risk of a new recession," The EU's Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said in a statement. "While jobs are increasing in some member states, no real improvement is forecast in the unemployment situation in the EU as a whole."


EU unemployment will be stuck at 9.5 percent for the foreseeable future, the Commission warned.


The report also contained some worrying figures for some individual member states.


Italy is unlikely to fulfill its promise of balancing its budget by 2013 if recently promised austerity and reform measures aren't implemented. According to the forecast, which does not take into account the most recent promises, Italy will still run a deficit of 1.2 percent, with debt close to 119 percent of economic output.


Berlusconi has come under so much pressure that he promised to resign as soon as the new budget has been passed. The Commission this weeks started a verification mission in Rome to check on Italy's efforts, with the International Monetary Fund to follow soon.


Rehn warned that if several states don't soon implement additional measures to get their spending budgets control, he will start using new powers to sanction overspenders set to come into force in the coming weeks.


"What we need now is unwavering implementation," Rehn said. "On my part, I will start using the new rules of economic governance from day one."


Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Saturday, August 13

Moody's warns almost certainly Greek standard

Athens - Moody cut Greece's credit rating more in junk-e-region on Monday and said that it was almost certain to beat a standard tag on its debts because of a new EU bailout.

It was the second rating agency to a default after euro zone leaders warn banks agreed last week that the private sector share of the burden of rescue business shoulder would, the Greece it provides more cash and easier credit conditions of water to keep and avoid further infection.


"The announced EU programme with the Institute of international finance statement implies that the probability of one tormented Exchange and thus by default on Greek Government bonds is virtually 100 percent," Moody's said in a statement.


Bank lobby IIF, the private sector negotiations, 90 percent investor participation in the bond Exchange will attract plan new 109 billion euro bailout coming across the EU.


Moody's cut is Greece of three notches, CA, just a notch above implies review according to the expected loss of proposed debt exchanges by default.


Greece now has the lowest rating of each country in the world covered by Moody's, Fitch said last week that it would reconsider Greece review after the debt swap is completed.


"Once the distressed Exchange is complete, Moody's will consider Greece rating to ensure that they risk of the country's new credit profile, including the potential for further debt restructuring, is equivalent to", it was said.


However pledged during Fitch, a higher, fast "low speculative grade" Greece be after its bonds had been exchanged, said Moody's it could predict if the assessment would change or like.


"There is, how fast the debt Exchange, takes place", says Alastair Wilson Moody's Managing Director for EMEA, credit policy. "Once we and transparency about, who we will quickly review the credit profile." Whether that will change review, which is another question, "he told Reuters."


A senior EU official said on Saturday, the goal was to start to close a voluntary private of Greek bond swap end of August and early September.


Greek bank stocks and the broader stock market was unimpressed by Moody's action. Analysts said that the downgrade and the default warning and less disturbing following assurances on the part of the EU deal would be listed.


"The Council last week effectively Greek banks continue to access to ECB liquidity, even in the event that PSI (participation of the private sector) solves a selective standard secured", said Plato of Monokroussos, an economist at EFG Eurobank.


The Government has criticized repeatedly reviews companies for their downgrades and their spokesman threatened on Monday to end his subscriptions to these agencies, as the new rescue package for years issuing new bonds means Greece.


"All Governments figures a subscription for such agencies." I think we need no longer not the reviews. "No practical value have, said Elias Mosialos radio-9.""Perhaps the Ministry of finance should terminate its subscription."


CONTAGION CONTAINED... FOR NOW


Moody's said that there is the possibility of a second standard account would during check of social Greek rating.


"Our experience is that relatively small restructuring were often followed by lower standards", said Wilson, adding that he could not say if this would be the case for Greece.


The rescue package for Greece from other countries in the euro zone risks with short-term infection, but it was not necessarily positive in the longer term as it is a for the participation of the private sector offers, rescue precedent, said Moody's.


"The support package sets a precedent for future restructuring the finances of an other sovereign of the euro area as the Greece should be a problem." Therefore likely credit-neutral is the impact at the Thursday announcement for creditors of Ireland and Portugal, "it said.


The cost for the insurance the peripheral euro zone debt against default rose on Monday on the market doubts that the fresh aid package for Greece agreed that last week major economies protect from infection.


Standard & poor's and Fitch rate Greece CCC, largely in line with Moody's rating. S & P has not yet said how the impact of EU Summit deal Greece rating.


Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

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