Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Thursday, March 1

US trade gap widens; deficit with China hits record

The U.S. trade deficit widened slightly more than expected in December, and the bilateral trade deficit with China last year soared to a record high $295.5 billion.


The monthly trade gap swelled to $48.8 billion as goods imports climbed to the highest level since July 2008, just before the financial crisis caused world trade to plunge, a report from the Commerce Department showed on Friday.


Analysts surveyed before the report had expected the December trade deficit at $48.0 billion, up from a revised estimate of $47.1 billion in November.


U.S. exports grew slightly in December, with records set for petroleum, services and advance technology goods.


For the year, the U.S. trade gap rose 11.6 percent to $558.0 billion, the highest since 2008.


Exports last year rose 14.5 percent to a record $2.1 trillion, keeping the United States on pace to meet President Barack Obama's goal of doubling exports in five years.


Imports grew 13.8 percent to a record $2.7 trillion, with records set in several categories.


Auto imports rose to the highest since 2007 and petroleum the highest since 2008. The average price for imported oil in 2011 was a record high $99.78 per barrel


The record trade deficit last year with China is certain to reinforce concerns in Congress about Beijing's currency and trade practice ahead of a meeting next week between Obama and the Asian giant's expected next leader, Vice President Xi Jinping.


U.S. exports to China jumped 13.1 percent to $103.9 billion. But that was overwhelmed by a 9.4 percent increase in imports from China, which pushed the tally to a record $399.3 billion.


Last year, the Democratic-controlled Senate passed legislation to pressure China to raise the value of its currency, but that bill hit a dead end in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.


Many lawmakers believe that China deliberately undervalues its currency to give its companies an unfair price advantage, contributing to the huge bilateral deficit.


The U.S. trade deficits with the European Union and Canada also expanded in 2011.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

Sunday, December 18

Hard talk will change US-China trade

Hard talk will change US-China trade

Larry Downing / Reuters



President Barack Obama talks at his press conference at the end of the APEC Summit in Honolulu, Hawaii.


Obama to China: Oh grow up.


China Obama: You're not the boss of me.


You can ignore the last difficult conversation between the world two economic, military and political superpower. The economies of China and the United States are so closely connected, the two countries have no choice, but also the world's largest trading partner.


There's a global recession, nothing like the threat to cause the kind of trade tensions, the President Barack Obama high-profile scolding China asked this weekend to tip the scales of international trade in their favour. As the presidential campaign heats up the political rhetoric on trade, both sides in the U.S.-China trade relationship only to muddle through you their way.


"We have the same interests largely" said investment guru Warren Buffett CNBC Monday. "So it is not in our interest, stating, really angry with each other." Is there tension. We want to play our way and way to play, and they want to play their way. And we need to give both in some cases.


The rules of the game of trade - and whether China spielt-of them - were the subject of harsh speech of the President at a meeting of leaders Saturday in Hawaii, as he, a nine-day sweep through Asia to promote trade began the world of.


In a meeting with businessmen, Obama said it was "playing time for China" according to the rules of world trade and urged Beijing, such as "Adult" rather than to try to act as an emerging economy. Large trade surplus, China, Obama, said, "addresses the entire global economy from the balance."


Chinese officials shots quickly back, say, that it was not inclined to play by you rules that it plays no part in writing.


"First we need to know the rules we speak," Pang Sen, Deputy Director-General at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told a press conference said not long after Obama. "If the rules are made jointly by agreement, and China is part of it, China will then hold of them." "If rules are decided by one or even more countries, China has the obligation to comply with, the No."


Western economies have long argued that China breaks not only the rules, there is a also the entire field of artificial undervaluing its currency to its exports boost tips. Obama quoted analysts who is undervalued percent of renminbi according to estimates by 20 to 25.


Showing you in turn China's leaders to re-evaluate, in 2005 started, which has increased by almost 30 per cent (including a freezing of the two years after the financial panic of 2008) value of the renminbi in US dollars. Let the currency faster, one estimate they argue, would risk adding fuel to an already cause for concern inflation, steaming Chinese exports, factories close to enforce wider social unrest, unemployment and sparks.


Obama, fighting, to keep his job for a further term feel of political pressure is at home to talk to China hard.


With the demand of customers weak US companies shall endeavour to buy better access to a fast-growing Chinese middle class of 300 million people have love to Western products. Found a Reuters poll of executives, that more than 40 percent rising consumption makes in Asia, particularly China, seen as their single biggest growth opportunity. But Obama clear, he is heard complaints from managers about difficulties in fair access to Chinese markets and intellectual property protection.


"Enough is enough," Obama told reporters Monday. "Consistently on intellectual property do not protected report problems companies doing business in China."


China is the United States of's third largest trading partner, behind Canada and Mexico, with around 450 billion dollar value of goods movements between the two countries. But the flow of goods remains badly skewed: the United States imports about four times the dollar were volume from China is exported again in this market. But the Chinese market is growing faster; U.S., 32 percent exported to China rose in 2010. China is the largest purchaser of U.S. agricultural products and an important market for US manufacturer of aircraft, heavy equipment and machinery, and electronics.


The Western world is looking for solution to the ever-growing financial crisis in Europe after China, which now sits operated foreign-exchange reserves in the world to the biggest bunch of export to intensify and lend a hand. Such as the European Heads of State and leaders scramble for default values weaker, flooded to avert debt economies such as Italy and Greece, have they not in a position to overcome political stalemate which raise funds for these debts backstop. Unless deadlock is broken, European banks hold Greek and Italian bonds face heavy losses, if the Governments their debts standard. Tab "Overall result" may be 4 or 5 billion euros.


But so far, Europe's Central Bank, has the ECB policy was used against the kind of "easy money" reserve by the Treasury and the Federal, if the economic crisis of 2008 U.S. banks threatened.


China has clearly a dog in this fight. Consumer market, China's best customers is one of the euro as the world's second largest. So far, China has made it clear that it wants no part in any European bailout was recently at a meeting of the 20 largest industrialized countries in Cannes, France.


Chinese officials have, that they believe that the current crisis across Europe's own production made also clear. You say it is the result of "the cumulative effort of their worn out welfare States" after Jin Liqun, head of the China Investment Corporation, one of the SWF that European Heads of State and Government have hoped would support a financial safety net.


"Labour law are outdated, the labour laws induce sloth, dullness, instead of hard-working," Jin said in a television interview with Al Jazeera. "The incentive system has got completely out of balance."


Much as its economy and financial systems deep with the United States are connected, can China ill-afford to see fall Europe deeper into recession and financial turmoil. But she can only play a supporting role in supporting the euro-zone to get back on its feet.


"The solution from the euro area must come," said Didier Borowski, head of strategy and research in economics at Amundi, a Paris-based investment manager. "We would have a lender of last resort, without a doubt the sovereign wealth funds and private investors in sovereign bonds investing would like to be." But without the role of the ECB, we should not expect China to play this role. It makes sense. "You can help only."


Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Chairman/CEO says the relationship between US and China interests shall be judged out bumpy at times, but the two countries in the course of time.

Tuesday, November 8

Congress OKs Korea, Panama, Colombia trade deals

WASHINGTON — The Congress on Wednesday approved long-delayed trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia and Panama that are expected to lift exports by about $13 billion a year and give U.S. employment a boost.

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Republicans and Democrats joined together in the House of Representatives and the Senate to pass the pacts, which now go to President Barack Obama to sign into law.


Obama -- who sent the three agreements to Capitol Hill nine days ago, four to five years after they were negotiated -- welcomed Congress' passage of the deals as "a major win for American workers and businesses."


"Tonight's vote, with bipartisan support, will significantly boost exports that bear the proud label 'Made in America,' support tens of thousands of good-paying American jobs and protect labor rights, the environment and intellectual property," Obama said in a statement.


U.S. farm and manufactured goods exports are expected to rise under the three agreements as tariffs are phased out. The pacts also open new markets for U.S. companies in service sectors such as banking, insurance and express delivery.


"These free trade agreements will give our economy a much-needed shot in the arm and create tens of thousands of American jobs," said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat.


Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said the bipartisan votes showed there were some areas where his party and Obama could find common ground despite a battle over jobs legislation and many other clashes in the past.


"For our part, Senate Republicans are ready to work with him on an even more robust trade agenda," McConnell said.


Critics like Senator Sherrod Brown said the deals would harm U.S. employment, though the Obama administration and other proponents believe they will support tens of thousands jobs.


Brown urged Obama to turn away from "NAFTA-style" agreements like the three deals and change trade policy to "put American manufacturers and workers first."


The biggest gains are expected from the pact with South Korea, a longtime U.S. ally and a $1 trillion economy in a region dominated by China. The agreement will help anchor the United States in the fast-growing Asia Pacific region so it can share in its growth, analysts say.


The U.S.-South Korea deal is the biggest U.S. trade pact since the North American Free Trade Agreement that took effect in January 1994.


The action came a day before South Korean President Lee Myung-bak speaks to a joint session of the U.S. Congress.


In a speech to a U.S. business group, Lee called the pact a "very significant achievement" that will create jobs in both countries.


The Senate voted 83-15 to approve the South Korea deal and the House 278-151. The Panama agreement cleared the Senate by a vote of 77-22 and the House 300-129.


The Colombia agreement, reflecting Democrats' concerns about labor conditions, garnered the least support but still was approved by margins of 66-33 in the Senate and 262-167 in the House.


"The free trade agreement ends the uncertainty that has been discouraging long-term investment and it now guarantees to all investors stability in the rules of the game," Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said on television.


"The moment has come to think big and work for a successful implementation and to take advantage of this treaty, which in commercial terms is the most important one we have signed in our history."


Obama sent the three agreements to Capitol Hill nine days ago, four to five years after they were negotiated.


The deals had foundered mainly on Democratic Party concerns over labor practices abroad and fear that increased competition would cost U.S. jobs.


OPPORTUNITIES LOST


U.S. farmers and big agricultural exporters are excited about new sales opportunities for beef, pork, poultry, corn, wheat, soybeans and other food products in the three markets, but they lament the long delay as a lost opportunity.


"We can't underestimate how much U.S. agriculture has lost out," while the trade pacts were stalled, said Devry Boughner, director of international business relations for the food, agriculture and risk management giant Cargill.


"Corn, soybeans and wheat exports from the U.S. have gone from a 78 percent market share in the Colombian market to 28 percent, owing in part to the fact that Canada got to Colombia first," Boughner said.


David Dreier, chairman of the powerful House Rules Committee, called approval of the pacts a small step toward restoring U.S. leadership on trade.


Although Obama was slow to move the agreements, he negotiated side deals with each country to address concerns raised by Democrats and reduce opposition to the pacts.


He also insisted Congress renew a worker retraining program known as Trade Adjustment Assistance, which the House did on Wednesday along with the pacts.


In a study in 2007, the U.S. International Trade Commission estimated the U.S.-South Korea deal would lift U.S. imports from Korea to $6.9 billion a year by $6.4 billion, with gains in areas like clothing, footwear, electronics and cars.


A study by the labor-backed Economic Policy Institute estimated the agreement will cost about 159,000 jobs over seven years. The White House says it will help create or maintain more than 70,000, while congressional Republicans see as many as 250,000 new jobs.


All three pacts were negotiated and signed during the administration of former President George W. Bush, who was unable to win their approval from the Democratic-controlled Congress before leaving office in 2009.


The oldest and most controversial pact, the one with Colombia, was signed in November 2006 and the other two accords in mid-2007. Since then, other countries have negotiated scores of new trade agreements around the world.


Ted Austell, a vice president at Boeing, said the aircraft maker expected to benefit both directly and indirectly. "When commerce increases, downstream that turns into aircraft orders. More movement of people and certainly of goods opens up more opportunity to sell aircraft," he said.


Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

Thursday, October 27

Currency spat: China threatens trade war with US

BEIJING — China warned Washington it is adamantly opposed to a proposed U.S. bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise, saying its passage could lead to a trade war between the world's top two economies.

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In a coordinated response, the Chinese central bank and the ministries of commerce and foreign affairs accused Washington of "politicizing" global currency issues.


The bill to be debated in the United States this week violates World Trade Organization rules and forcing the yuan to appreciate would weaken joint efforts to revive the global economy, the foreign ministry said.


"By using the excuse of a so-called 'currency imbalance', this will escalate the exchange rate issue, adopting a protectionist measure that gravely violates WTO rules and seriously upsets Sino-U.S. trade and economic relations," foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said in a statement posted on China's official government website on Tuesday. "China expresses its adamant opposition to this."


U.S. senators voted on Monday to open a week of debate on the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, which would allow the U.S. government to slap countervailing duties on products from countries found to be subsidizing their exports by undervaluing their currencies.


U.S. lawmakers, eyeing 2012 elections, said the undervaluing of China's currency had cost American jobs and that a fairer exchange rate would help cut an annual trade gap of $250 billion.


A top U.S. official said Tuesday the Obama administration has begun discussions with the Senate about whether a bill aimed at forcing China to let its currency rise is "the right approach."


Acting U.S. Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank told CNBC that the best solution to what American officials view as an undervalued Chinese currency remains "an open question." 


"The administration is talking with people in the Senate about whether this bill is the right approach or whether there are other approaches to take," she said. "Those conversations are under way."


Supporters of the bill say that the value of the yuan is still as much as 40 percent below what it should be, keeping the prices of Chinese goods artificially low and U.S. products excessively high. They say that's a major factor in a trade deficit with China that hit $273 billion last year.


Gradual reform
Ma urged U.S. legislators to "proceed from the broader picture of Sino-U.S. trade and economic cooperation" and "forsake protectionism."


He repeated Beijing's position that it will continue to gradually reform its currency policy, "strengthening the flexibility of the renminbi exchange rate."


Monday's vote bolsters prospects for the bill to clear the Senate later this week, but prospects for action in the House of Representatives are murky.


If the bill did clear both chambers, it would present President Barack Obama with a tough decision on whether to sign the popular legislation into law and risk a trade war with Beijing, or veto it to pursue a more diplomatic approach.


"My colleagues, both Democrats and Republicans, agree that China's deliberate actions to devalue its currency give its goods an unfair competitive advantage in the marketplace," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.


The legislation "will even the playing field and help American goods compete in a global market — and keep American jobs here at home," he said.


China has routinely denied claims that its policies are responsible for trade imbalances and a high rate of unemployment in the United States, saying that structural problems were to blame.


"It is widely understand that the renminbi exchange rate is not the cause of China-U.S. trade imbalances," Ma said.


China's central bank said in a statement that the bill failed to address the underlying issues in the U.S. economy.


"The yuan bill passed by the U.S. senate will not solve its problems, such as insufficient savings, high trade deficit and high unemployment rate, but it may seriously affect the whole progress of China's reform of its yuan exchange rate regime and may also lead to a trade war which we would not like to see."


'Unfair'
China's currency has appreciated 7 percent since June 2010, when the central bank decided to adopt a more flexible exchange rate, said foreign minister spokesman Ma, adding that Beijing would continue "proactive" and "gradual" reform.


The central bank added that Chinese inflation had already pushed the real yuan exchange rate further "toward the equilibrium."


Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said the United States was trying to pass on the blame for its own failings.


"Trying to turn domestic disputes onto another country is both unfair and in violation of standard international rules, and China expresses its concern," he said in a statement issued on the ministry's website.


Shen said any move by the United States to force the yuan to appreciate would undermine joint efforts to revive global economic growth, which took another blow on Monday with data showing that global manufacturing shrank in September for the first time in over two years.


"It will weaken China-U.S. efforts to join hands and together promote global economic recovery," he said. "The global economic is in a complex, sensitive and changeable period, and so even more needs a stable international monetary environment."


U.S. critics of China's currency policy have gained some traction as a weak economy keeps U.S. unemployment stuck above 9 percent and as 2012 presidential elections draw near.


Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who has been sponsoring currency legislation for the past six years, said China's "predatory currency practices" were "undermining the economic health of American manufacturers and their ability to compete at home and around the globe."


It's time, said Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., to "let the officials in China know that there are consequences to cheating."


Passage of the bill by the Democratic-controlled Senate would send it to the House, which is run by traditionally free-trade-friendly Republicans.


House expected to pass bill
A China currency bill passed the House last year with 99 Republican votes, but lapsed because the Senate took no action. This year, the bill already has more than 200 House co-sponsors and this week supporters expect to reach 218, the number needed to pass it.


However, House Republican leaders have not shown a great appetite to pursue currency legislation, and it is unclear if the bill would ever face a vote in that chamber.


As with similar legislation in the past, the Obama administration has not taken a public stance on the bill, although White House spokesman Jay Carney said on Monday that the president shares "the goal it represents."


U.S. critics of the bill also warned of the risk of a trade war with China — one of the fastest-growing markets for U.S. goods — just when a weak global economy can least afford it.


The Emergency Committee for American Trade called the bill "a highly damaging unilateral approach that will undermine broader efforts to address China's currency undervaluation."


It also said the bill was unlikely to pass muster at the World Trade Organization and would open the door to Chinese retaliation "to the detriment of U.S. exports and jobs."


The Senate decision was a sign that China was being made a scapegoat by struggling western economies, said Wang Jun, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.


"Maybe the United States will not be the only and last country to do so. With the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis, we must also be on high alert that euro zone countries could also press China on the exchange rate issue. We need to launch some pre-emptive measures to hit back against any more attacks," Wang said.


Reuters and The Associated Pres contributed to this report.

Monday, June 6

US sanctions slew of companies on the trade in Iran

WASHINGTON-the Obama administration on Tuesday made seven foreign companies, including Venezuela' State oil company and an Israeli shipping company, with sanctions for doing business with the Iran, which helps to fund its nuclear program. At the same time, the Administration imposed separate sanctions on more than 15 people and companies in China, Syria, Iran, North Korea and elsewhere for the illegal trade in missile technology and weapons of mass destruction.

The State Department announced the penalties such as the management of the measures against companies that provide or extended transport petroleum products including gasoline, in the Iran. The announcement came a day after signed give an Executive President Barack Obama the departments of Treasury and Government more leeway in the targeting companies in the Iranian energy sector to increase pressure on the Iran to international requirements meet and prove that its nuclear program is peaceful.

The sanctions are approved and signed into law by President Barack Obama exports in the Iran the first specifically relating to refined petroleum because enabling legislation for such measures was last year by Congress. Nine other companies were hit with penalties under other provisions of the law.

The affected companies include Petroleos de Venezuela, tanker Pacific by Singapore, Ofer brothers group Israel, associated shipbrokers Monaco, petrochemical commercial company international Jersey and Iran, the Royal Oyster group of the United Arab Emirates and fast ship of the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg "all of these companies activities in the supply of refined petroleum products in the Iran, the direct supply of gasoline and related products, including involved have", said in announcing the sanctions. US officials say that Iran used income from the energy sector to fund its nuclear program. "Those who continue to irresponsible Iranian energy sector to support and facilitate Iranian efforts to avoid US sanctions will have serious consequences."

For the most part, the sanctions are trimmed the company out of business with the United States, although Steinberg, that the sanctions had cut said to each company fits. Petroleos de Venezuela, is, for example, of all government contracts, U.S. U.S. import-export financing and export conditions are excluded for the sensitive technology. But it is prohibited not from the sale of oil to the United States or any of its subsidiaries, including the U.S. company CITGO influence.

Petroleos de Venezuela or PDVSA, provided at least two loads of petroleum products worth about $50 million in the Iran between December 2010 and March, according to the State Department.

The Israeli company, together with tanker Pacific by Singapore, are accused of, 2010 a exercise not due-diligence participation in the sale of oil tankers on the Iranian national shipping company, which is already under us and European sanctions. The two companies are now denied ever loans of more than $10 million of American banks and always U.S. export licenses.

The Administration writes that led to sanctions, business retreat five major multinational oil companies dealing with Iran and convince to stop large insurers Lloyd's of London, for shipments of petroleum products in the Iran. The State Department says that it has convinced also jet fuel suppliers in 17 European Nations, air flies the Iran to stop providing fuel to their levels.

In addition to the Iran sanctions, the Administration imposed sanctions on 16 people and companies from China, North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Venezuela for the violation of the Iran, North Korea and Syria non-proliferation Act through sale or purchase of sensitive equipment and technology relating to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missile systems.

Are the affected by the sanctions of U.S. Government contracts, U.S. help, American Defense prohibited and denied to sell licenses articles are excluded from purchasing for a period of two years.

The sanctions affect the Belarusian optical mechanical Association and BelTechExport Belarus; Karl Lee, Dalian of sunny industries, Dalian Zhongbang chemical industries company and Xian Junyun electronic China; Milad Jafari, the defense industries, the Islamic Republic of Iran shipping companies, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Quds force, SAD import-export company and organization of Shahid Bakeri industries group of Iran; Tangun trade with North Korea. the industrial construction of the defense and scientific studies and research center of Syria and Venezuela's military industries company.

© 2011 The associated press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or distributed.

Tuesday, May 24

China trade surplus surges, is fuel for Yuan critics in United States

BEIJING China to book a strong trade surplus back in April as exports hit a record while imports more relaxed as expected, stormed burdened by sustainable monetary tightening and high commodity prices.

The surplus of $11.4 billion, is almost four times higher than expected, the economic and strategic talks at the highest level in Washington has China and U.S. criticism could fuel pump that Beijing restricts the Yuan appreciation for its exports to support industry.

The trade account swung from a small, rare trade deficit in the first quarter, driven by a stronger than expected 29.9 percent increase in exports more than a year earlier to a record high of $155.7 billion.

Imports rose by 21.8 percent, short of estimates and analysts whether this Bills should be read as a sign of surprising weakness in the world's fastest growing economy or simply deferred purchases because of rising raw material prices were at loggerheads.

"Exports are much stronger, which is the basic thing." Global demand still quite strong, slightly stronger than many people fear, "said Tao Wang, Economist at UBS in Beijing."

"On the import page we think that commodity exports had been very strong to February, and a lot of inventory it has structure." "So now we think it is by some adjusting."

Xu Biao, an economist with China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen, but, said the lower than expected, a much more serious warning could contain imports.

"Concerns about a slowdown have certainly intensified and the risks of a worst case scenario for the Chinese economy, namely a relatively low growth and high inflation, are on the rise," he said.

The median forecast of economists respondents by Reuters last week was for exports rise 29.4 per cent and imports by 28%, which grow a trade surplus of $3 billion.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose by 35.1 percent in April from a year earlier and increased by 12.3 percent over the previous month. Imports gained 27.4 percent operations and 7.4 percent month on month, said the customs administration.

Registered also impact of earthquakes and subsequent nuclear crisis of Japan pay China trade. Japan imports were 16 billion dollars in April, 14.9 percent from March, as production and shipments were interrupted.

WEAK-YUAN POLICY


The data showed that China's trade surplus with the United States widely rose 16 percent on its since November.

The data offers fresh ammunition for the US politicians that the trade imbalance say relating to China's monetary policy, a weak Yuan a Chinese manufacturer is unfair advantage in global markets and cost American jobs.

A total trade surplus narrows China last year, but provided little comfort for the officials in Washington, because the surplus with the United States rose 26 percent to more than $180 billion.

On the first two days of talks on Monday the United States pressed China on a number of known issues, including, that Beijing should press the tightly managed Yuan up at a faster pace against the dollar.

"This number is add probably the pressure from Washington for Beijing faster currency appreciation to, but more all should convince Chinese policy makers, that one tolerated stronger yuan of the economy, can be", said Brian Jackson, an economist with the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

For its part China turned aside a chance to criticize the loose US monetary and fiscal policy, that there were claims in the past weakening of the dollar.

China has about $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, of which around two thirds are in dollar-based assets, to be held so that Beijing has significant stake in the health of the currency appreciated.

Import cost increases, together with the Government efforts to compensate for the economy in favour of domestic consumption reduction of dependence on exports, could lead to a smaller trade surplus for 2011 of last year of $183 billion.

Chinese officials hope that a small trade surplus with the rest of the world could facilitate review by major trading partners of the Yuan.

Still, there are many indications that the Government of faster Yuan appreciation tolerate this year as it tries, employ the inflationary impact of rising raw material prices.

China dissolved the Yuan to the dollar from a nearly two-year peg in June, and this year people's Bank of China has led the Yuan heights record. It has estimated now 5 percent since June and 1.5 per cent since the beginning of this year.

NO HARD LANDING

China is already the world's largest exporter and has only little margin for its exports further increase, while the demand for imports in leaps and bounds in addition to his turbo-charged growth, which exceeded 10 percent last year.

Investors have of an abrupt slowdown long's second largest economy of the world, that everything from the raw material consumer goods could, smothering a key source of demand as global buyers as many parts of the world are still fighting, fears that the global financial crisis.

The latest data showed that China, world's second largest oil imported buyer, 1.7% more oil than a year ago, the third highest on record on a daily basis bring in 5.24 million barrels per day in April.

Imports of copper were weaker, almost 14 percent of March by volume. But said analysts rather than heralding a sudden drop-off in Chinese economic activity, the a below pointed out that corporate high-priced overseas deliveries in favour of local producers and stocks were avoided.

The Government sees few signs of a hard landing in the economy. But it required reserves and interest rates banks increase during the Yuan, inflation should increase at a faster clip to combat, analysts say.

Inflation hit a 32-month high in March of 5.4 percent, investors more policy tightening the future keep. Figures on Wednesday to show that inflation loosened in April to 5.2 percent as food prices, are the most important pressure behind inflation, now.

"I think, is over-tightening the main risk for China." However, it is too early, based imports to over tightening only on April, may require "said Dongming County Xie, China Economist at the OCBC Bank in Singapore."

"Compared with interest rate policy, China can look perhaps more now address to the monetary policy of inflationary pressures."

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

Friday, May 13

China trade surplus surges, is fuel for Yuan critics in United States

BEIJING China to book a strong trade surplus back in April as exports hit a record while imports more relaxed as expected, stormed burdened by sustainable monetary tightening and high commodity prices.

The surplus of $11.4 billion, is almost four times higher than expected, the economic and strategic talks at the highest level in Washington has China and U.S. criticism could fuel pump that Beijing restricts the Yuan appreciation for its exports to support industry.


The trade account swung from a small, rare trade deficit in the first quarter, driven by a stronger than expected 29.9 percent increase in exports more than a year earlier to a record high of $155.7 billion.


Imports rose by 21.8 percent, short of estimates and analysts whether this Bills should be read as a sign of surprising weakness in the world's fastest growing economy or simply deferred purchases because of rising raw material prices were at loggerheads.


"Exports are much stronger, which is the basic thing." Global demand still quite strong, slightly stronger than many people fear, "said Tao Wang, Economist at UBS in Beijing."


"On the import page we think that commodity exports had been very strong to February, and a lot of inventory it has structure." "So now we think it is by some adjusting."


Xu Biao, an economist with China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen, but, said the lower than expected, a much more serious warning could contain imports.


"Concerns about a slowdown have certainly intensified and the risks of a worst case scenario for the Chinese economy, namely a relatively low growth and high inflation, are on the rise," he said.


The median forecast of economists respondents by Reuters last week was for exports rise 29.4 per cent and imports by 28%, which grow a trade surplus of $3 billion.


On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose by 35.1 percent in April from a year earlier and increased by 12.3 percent over the previous month. Imports gained 27.4 percent operations and 7.4 percent month on month, said the customs administration.


Registered also impact of earthquakes and subsequent nuclear crisis of Japan pay China trade. Japan imports were 16 billion dollars in April, 14.9 percent from March, as production and shipments were interrupted.


WEAK-YUAN POLICY


The data showed that China's trade surplus with the United States widely rose 16 percent on its since November.


The data offers fresh ammunition for the US politicians that the trade imbalance say relating to China's monetary policy, a weak Yuan a Chinese manufacturer is unfair advantage in global markets and cost American jobs.


A total trade surplus narrows China last year, but provided little comfort for the officials in Washington, because the surplus with the United States rose 26 percent to more than $180 billion.


On the first two days of talks on Monday the United States pressed China on a number of known issues, including, that Beijing should press the tightly managed Yuan up at a faster pace against the dollar.


"This number is add probably the pressure from Washington for Beijing faster currency appreciation to, but more all should convince Chinese policy makers, that one tolerated stronger yuan of the economy, can be", said Brian Jackson, an economist with the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.


For its part China turned aside a chance to criticize the loose US monetary and fiscal policy, that there were claims in the past weakening of the dollar.


China has about $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, of which around two thirds are in dollar-based assets, to be held so that Beijing has significant stake in the health of the currency appreciated.


Import cost increases, together with the Government efforts to compensate for the economy in favour of domestic consumption reduction of dependence on exports, could lead to a smaller trade surplus for 2011 of last year of $183 billion.


Chinese officials hope that a small trade surplus with the rest of the world could facilitate review by major trading partners of the Yuan.


Still, there are many indications that the Government of faster Yuan appreciation tolerate this year as it tries, employ the inflationary impact of rising raw material prices.


China dissolved the Yuan to the dollar from a nearly two-year peg in June, and this year people's Bank of China has led the Yuan heights record. It has estimated now 5 percent since June and 1.5 per cent since the beginning of this year.


NO HARD LANDING


China is already the world's largest exporter and has only little margin for its exports further increase, while the demand for imports in leaps and bounds in addition to his turbo-charged growth, which exceeded 10 percent last year.


Investors have of an abrupt slowdown long's second largest economy of the world, that everything from the raw material consumer goods could, smothering a key source of demand as global buyers as many parts of the world are still fighting, fears that the global financial crisis.


The latest data showed that China, world's second largest oil imported buyer, 1.7% more oil than a year ago, the third highest on record on a daily basis bring in 5.24 million barrels per day in April.


Imports of copper were weaker, almost 14 percent of March by volume. But said analysts rather than heralding a sudden drop-off in Chinese economic activity, the a below pointed out that corporate high-priced overseas deliveries in favour of local producers and stocks were avoided.


The Government sees few signs of a hard landing in the economy. But it required reserves and interest rates banks increase during the Yuan, inflation should increase at a faster clip to combat, analysts say.


Inflation hit a 32-month high in March of 5.4 percent, investors more policy tightening the future keep. Figures on Wednesday to show that inflation loosened in April to 5.2 percent as food prices, are the most important pressure behind inflation, now.


"I think, is over-tightening the main risk for China." However, it is too early, based imports to over tightening only on April, may require "said Dongming County Xie, China Economist at the OCBC Bank in Singapore."


"Compared with interest rate policy, China can look perhaps more now address to the monetary policy of inflationary pressures."


Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

Monday, May 2

US and China on a collision course for trade war?

SHEBOYGAN, Wisc.?? China's rise as a manufacturing power has benefited American factory owners in at least one way. The Middle Kingdom's insatiable appetite for second-hand machinery means that small U.S. businesses can make a quick buck by selling old equipment there.


For some American manufacturers, however, the idea of shipping even used stuff with no book value to their chief overseas rival is anathema.


Many of the machines at Bob Chesebro's factory in this Wisconsin city on the shores of Lake Michigan do something seemingly mundane: They sew the toes of the socks he makes closed.


In China that is still often done by hand ? a labor-intensive task that other developing countries will eventually do more cheaply as Chinese wages rise.


Chesebro, chief executive and third-generation owner of Wigwam Mills Inc, one of America's few remaining sock makers, refuses to surrender his edge. His equipment ends its days as scrap metal in a dumpster behind his plant.


"We have taken the view that if we sell these machines we're just going to put them in the hands of people who will compete against us," he said.


In several ways, Wigwam defies the conventional wisdom of today's global market.

Video: IMF names date for China to surpass US (on this page)

It has managed to succeed making a relatively high-volume, low-cost commodity product, employing hundreds of workers right here in the United States. It has done so by boosting its productivity and developing niche products like hiking and medical socks in-house.


Given the savage nature of the competition you might expect Chesebro to vent mainly against Chinese-style capitalism.


But like dozens of manufacturers and others across America interviewed for this story, his anger isn't directed at China, which he and others say is doing what it deems as necessary to boost its own people's prosperity.


Instead, their ire is aimed at the U.S. government and American multinationals for not stepping up to the plate and defending long-term U.S. interests.


"I don't blame the Chinese, they're just pursuing their national interest," said Patrick Mulloy, a member of the Congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. "I blame us for not realizing what's happening to us and for doing nothing about it."


Manufacturing nose dive
Prior to China's accession to the World Trade Organization almost a decade ago, free trade proponents argued that the move would create American jobs and eliminate the country's trade deficit. Neither prediction has proven accurate.


The U.S. trade shortfall with China hit a record high $273 billion last year and government data shows some 40 percent of factories with more than 250 employees closed down from 2001 to 2010.


While it can't all be laid at China's door, it is not a coincidence that after decades of more gradual decline, U.S. manufacturing took a nose dive after China's entry into the WTO.


Cheap labor is one huge advantage for China, of course. But numerous academics, former trade officials and labor union officials say predatory trade practices, subsidized exports and other controversial economic policies also make Chinese companies tough to compete against.


And they warn that unless the U.S. works out a way to bolster and promote the sector, future prosperity and America's superpower status will eventually be at risk.


This is only underlined by the U.S. economy's fragile state, with the jobless rate at 8.8 percent, growth tepid, and a huge government budget deficit and debt burden.


Even China's rising production costs may present an increasing threat, they argue. It means that China will be less able to rely on being the cheap maker of textiles, toys, furniture and plastics to create jobs ? some of that production is increasingly going to go to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam.


Instead, Beijing is increasingly focused on moving up the chain to higher valued technology-based goods ? which puts it in direct competition with the remaining power base of the U.S. manufacturing sector.


Signing own death warrants
And the technology-transfer terms that many big American companies are agreeing to when they do deals in China, and the research centers they are opening up there, means they could in some cases be signing their own death warrants.


Peter Navarro, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of California, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust, predicts that the crash America faces if it neglects manufacturing for too long is "going to be far worse."


"Over time the problems Americans are seeing with their economy are only going to get worse as China rises," he said. "We're heading for a collision and the longer that collision is delayed the harder it's going to be."


Still, free trade proponents have warned repeatedly that any protectionist measures would result in a costly trade war that neither side can win. They also argue that the United States has only itself to blame for its economic problems.


In an interview at the Hilton Chicago during Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the city earlier this year, Doug Oberhelman, CEO of heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc, which has 11 Caterpillar plants and R&D centers and some 15 percent of its workforce in China, acknowledged there would always be "frictions" between the two countries.


"But the fact is ... we need each other desperately," he said. "We need peace."


Local manufacturers, though, say the first shots have been fired, and they question whether the multinationals are wrongly pursuing a policy of appeasement.


They complain that Chinese companies benefit from a raft of subsidies ? from what they see as an undervalued yuan currency, to artificially cheap or even free land in some cases, low-interest loans and even subsidized energy bills ? and the U.S. government and major companies say or do little in response.


"We're in the middle of an economic war with China," said Milton Magnus, president of Leeds, Alabama-based M&B Hangers, America's last maker of metal coat hangers, who also destroys his old machines, which are designed and built in-house. "The Chinese want what we have and we're just sitting back and giving it to them."


But it isn't just a war over cheaper products like coat hangers and socks.


Appropriating technology?
Mounting evidence also suggests China is appropriating proprietary technology from Western firms and then using it to compete directly in ever more advanced fields.


The Chinese government has also been accused by foreign businessmen of changing the rules at home to favor local manufacturers for government contracts over foreign competitors.


Small manufacturers say they have increased productivity to compete. Wigwam's Chesebro says he has not replaced staff who retired or moved on over the years, reducing headcount to about 260 from 500 over the past two decades and his machines are now far more efficient.


But small manufacturers insist labor costs are not relevant when in many cases heavily-subsidized goods from China have been sold in America for below what the local manufacturers pay for raw materials.


"Labor costs have nothing to do with it," said Bill Upton, president of Pelham, Alabama-based Vulcan Threaded Products Inc. Vulcan makes steel bars and rods for everything from air conditioning units to sprinkler systems, is the last American firm of its kind, and won a trade case against Chinese competitors in 2008.


"We have a lean, efficient operation and we can compete against anyone in the world on a level playing field. But there's no way we can compete against finished goods that cost less than the raw materials," Upton said.


Even when American manufacturers do successfully pursue cases alleging unfair competition they may not come out on top.


A case can cost around $1 million in legal fees, and often takes more than a year plus a lot of management time that could be spent more productively.


And they claim even after penalties have been imposed, Chinese competitors often merely circumvent customs duties and other barriers by trans-shipping goods through third countries.


Still, free trade proponents point to the example of "Japan Inc" in the 1980s ? when there were fears that Japan's rise as a manufacturer threatened future American prosperity ? as evidence that concerns over foreign competition can be overblown.


Yet a key difference between "Japan Inc" in the 1980s and "China Inc" is that Japan discouraged foreign investment, whereas China has embraced it.


Back then, some key U.S. multinationals made a great deal of noise in public, and in the U.S. Congress, about unfair Japanese trading practices. Their interests were aligned with the smaller domestic manufacturers.


Making 'a lot of money' off China
But today, multinationals profit hugely from China and have less incentive to rock the boat. Only last week, Yum Brands Inc, the owner of the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell fast food restaurants, reported its operating profit was 75 percent greater in China than in the U.S. in the first quarter.


"The big difference is that no one made any money off Japan Inc," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "But some people are making a lot of money off China Inc."


Big American companies with investments in China are afraid to criticize Beijing because of the controls it has over just about any access to the Chinese market.


They fear too strident a stance could mean they will lose contracts or even be ostracized as Google Inc was after a dispute with China over censorship and hacking.


"The Chinese government controls all the levers of the economy, from import and export licenses on up," said Victor Shih, an assistant professor of politics at Northwestern University. "There are so many ways for the Chinese government to retaliate it is no surprise businesses are so reluctant to criticize it."


But multinationals and their CEOs have a great deal of influence on debate in Washington and more widely in the country.


They have often lobbied aggressively against any measures they deem protectionist, so their relative silence is seen by many smaller manufacturers and others as weakening the U.S. in its trade relationship with China.


"The issue today is that the firms hurting the most are not as politically connected as the firms that are benefiting the most," Mesirow's Swonk said.


There are no easy answers to America's predicament, for either the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama or the businesses that have bet heavily on China.


The WTO, for instance, ruled on March 11 that the United States could not levy extra duties on Chinese goods that the American government had described as subsidized and unfairly priced.


But such difficulties are not a reason for multinationals to roll over easily in the face of Chinese demands, say critics of their behavior.


'A very dangerous bargain'
Critics and academics warn that multinationals trading technology for market access have frequently found themselves a few years later losing out in export markets to Chinese competitors who were formerly their partners.


"The companies that hand over proprietary technology do so in the hope that they'll be the ones to get the better end of the bargain," said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "But so far the Chinese have come out ahead in most cases. Hope springs eternal, but it's a very dangerous bargain to make."


The handing over of proprietary technology also raises questions about the impact on U.S. national security, especially in trying to keep the Chinese military from being belligerent toward American allies in the Asia-Pacific region.


In a recent RAND Corp report "Ready for Takeoff: China's Advancing Aerospace Industry," the authors stated there is "no question... that foreign involvement in China's aviation manufacturing industry is contributing to the development of China's military aerospace capabilities."


This contribution, the report later states is "increasing China's ability and possibly its propensity to use force in ways that negatively affect U.S. interests and would increase the costs of resisting attempts to use such force."


Another risk to not talking more openly and directly about America's China problem is that it leaves the field open to extreme rhetoric and populist politics.


A solid majority of Americans in opinion polls say they view China as an economic threat and if America's dysfunctional relationship with the country is not addressed more openly, some fear it could prompt a marked protectionist swing in American politics.


"It would be better to deal with issues like the undervalued renminbi more directly and openly," said Menzie Chinn, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin. "I am concerned that if these problems are allowed to fester for too long, voters will force Congress into an open trade war. And that would be bad for everybody."


Trump plays China card
For instance, real estate tycoon Donald Trump has been playing the China card as he considers whether to seek nomination as the 2012 Republican presidential candidate, and his support in polls has been rising.


In recent months the garrulous star of NBC's reality show "The Apprentice" has referred to the Chinese in various national television interviews as "enemies" and "abusers" and says that he "would love a trade war with China." He told Reuters he would put a 25 percent tax on all goods from China.


"Saying China is the enemy may sound like an extreme opinion, but it can become a mainstream opinion if uttered in public often enough," said Steven Schier, a politics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota.


It is all a far cry from where things were back in 2000. The debate in the U.S. Congress on normalizing trade relations with China ? a step that would help China join the WTO ? saw lawmakers, lobby groups and businesses line up to stress that increased trade with China would be a win-win situation for Americans.


"Opening China's markets to U.S. products and services ... is the biggest single step we can take to reduce America's growing trade deficit with China," said Robert Kapp, then president of the U.S.-China Business Council and now a consultant for companies seeking to do business with China, at the time. "We're not talking about a 'gift' for China ... we're talking about bringing home the bacon."


The bacon may have arrived in the form of the profits American companies have been able to make in China but it certainly hasn't for the American workforce.


According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of U.S. manufacturing jobs fell by a third to 8.1 million from 12.2 million during the past decade ? more jobs lost than in the previous two decades combined.


BLS data also show that from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2010, a full 39 percent of U.S. manufacturing plants with more than 250 employees closed.


U.S. not the 'winner'
Chinese membership of the WTO has been a disaster for local manufacturers, says Charles Blum, president of trade consulting firm International Advisory Services Group Ltd and an official at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative under President Ronald Reagan.


"It doesn't really matter how small your manufacturing operation is, the sector is systematically being hollowed out," he said. "We figured the global market would take care of itself and that as a result the United States would turn out to be the winner. But it hasn't quite worked out that way."


Small businesses have traditionally been the backbone of America's economy, providing at least half the jobs, hiring more quickly when a recovery begins after a recession, and accounting for many more patents per employee than large firms.


Henry "Hank" Nothhaft, a serial entrepreneur and currently CEO of Tessera Technologies Inc, which specializes in miniaturization technologies for electronic devices, says most innovation occurs on the factory floor, so he worries that American innovation will slide with the erosion of the country's manufacturing base.


"If the manufacturing ecosystem goes, then innovation and engineering go with it," he said. "This means that future innovation is going to occur over in China and not here in the United States."


Meanwhile, the Chinese, if anything, have been getting more demanding.


Some business leaders and academics have noticed that the Chinese government's industrial strategy became more aggressive from 2006 onwards.


New rules "seek to appropriate technology from foreign multinationals" in key industries like avionics, power generation and high-speed rail, according to a December 2010 article for the Harvard Business Review called "China vs the World," by academics Thomas Hout and Pankaj Ghemawat.


"These rules limit investment by foreign companies as well as their access to China's markets, stipulate a high degree of local content in equipment produced in the country, and force the transfer of proprietary technologies from foreign companies to their joint ventures with China's state-owned enterprises. The new regulations are complex and ever changing."


Distracted by the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, governments and multinationals have only really become aware of this shift in Chinese policy over the past year or so, Hout, a former partner at the Boston Consulting Group, said in a telephone interview.


"The Chinese have managed to time this beautifully," he said. "Even people like myself who have really been paying attention were caught out and it's only been clear for the past year or so what's going on."


Getting a good deal?
A growing number of Western firms who thought they were getting a good deal by trading technology for access to China's market have also belatedly found out that they were mistaken.


In 2004 and 2005, China set up partnerships with Kawasaki Heavy Industries, France's Alstom, Germany's Siemens and Canada's Bombardier to build high-speed trains for China.


At first Kawasaki exported finished trains, then the group of foreign companies subcontracted the production of basic components to Chinese train manufacturer Sifang and then assembled them in China.


Then in 2009 the government began requiring that prospective bidders for Chinese high-speed rail projects form minority joint ventures with state-run manufacturers and hand over their latest designs and that 70 percent of the equipment had to be produced locally.


While aware of the flow of technology to the Chinese side, Kawasaki saw its joint venture as an opportunity to gain access to China, which was rapidly expanding its high-speed rail network. China has been by a long way the world's largest market for new rail lines in recent years.


Now, Chinese companies build faster, cheaper trains than their former mentors make and compete against them in global markets.


Kawasaki has complained that trains built by Sifang are based on its own technology. Similarly, Siemens was elbowed aside by its erstwhile partner, the China National Railway Signal and Communication Corp, when it came to constructing the high-profile Beijing-Shanghai high-speed link.


Other times, technology is pilfered. Glen Tellock, CEO of crane maker Manitowoc, says that while American companies find intellectual property theft a major problem, "the answer from the Chinese is always 'what's the harm?'"


In "China vs the World," Hout and Ghemawat write that Chinese firms have "come to dominate the global silicon-wafer-panel business, aided by low-cost financing and inexpensive land sales."


Local governments provide companies with land cheaply or even free. Chinese firms are provided land grants in excess of what they need, so they build apartment buildings on the land, which then pays for research costs and offsets start-up losses. State-owned banks provide Chinese firms with loans at below prevailing interest rates and sometimes local governments pay the interest on their behalf.


Solar panel prices cut in half
Hout and Ghemawat also examine the solar panel industry, an area that the Obama administration has championed as a way to create "green" jobs for the future.


But Chinese competition pushed solar panel prices down 50 percent in 2010 from 2009, hurting Western manufacturers. China now exports most of its solar panels and Chinese firms control half of the German market and a third of the U.S. market.


China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd is the world's largest solar panel maker. while Yingli Green Energy and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd are also major competitors in the industry.


Hout says China is now seeking to catch up with Western firms in the aviation and power generation industries.


In January, General Electric Co. announced a joint venture with Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) to develop electronics for the C919, a single-aisle commercial jetliner. That raised concerns that GE runs the risk of creating Chinese competitors through the proprietary technology it will provide as part of that joint venture.


"Multinationals are a little too optimistic about how much they can control the technology transfer process," the Brookings Institution's Prasad said. "The Chinese are very keen to build up their aviation industry and they've made it very clear what they want from GE to make that happen."


In a January 19 interview with Reuters, CEO Jeff Immelt, who also heads Obama's jobs council, insisted the company was "not naive or stupid" about doing business in China.


"We really do think a lot about it," he said. "There is a multitude of ways to succeed in China. It's going to be the biggest economy in the world. The only question is when."


This tone differed markedly from comments Immelt made in July last year at a private dinner in Rome ? remarks that caused him no little trouble.


"I really worry about China," he told a group of executives, as reported by the Financial Times. "I am not sure that in the end they want any of us to win, or any of us to be successful."


GE initially contested the FT report then changed tack when a spokesman said Immelt's remarks "do not represent our views."


Behind the scenes there does appear to be mounting worry among U.S. multinationals over Chinese policy.


Technology theft
A report commissioned by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce ("China's Drive for 'Indigenous Innovation': A Web of Industrial Policies") examines a Chinese plan for science and technology from 2006 to 2020 that is "considered by many international technology companies to be a blueprint for technology theft on a scale the world has never seen before."


"Indigenous innovation" refers to a Chinese government policy designed, among other things, to favor Chinese firms for state contracts and require technology transfer if Western companies want to participate.


"With these indigenous innovation industrial policies, it is very clear that China has switched from defense to offense," the chamber report said.


During his state visit here in January, China's Hu said the country would ease up on the program. The U.S. government has since publicly stated China needs to make good on that promise, though so far it is not clear that anything has yet changed.


What has also not changed is how keen American multinationals are to get into China, even if there are long-term concerns over the conditions attached to doing business there. And their willingness to keep silent about things they do not like.


Ralph Gomory, a research professor at New York University's Stern School of Business who worked for IBM for three decades, said the problem for U.S. multinationals is that the focus on short-term profit easily outweighs long-term worries.


"The Chinese are exploiting our weaknesses," he said. "They see the strength of America as the strength of our corporations and that the driver is profit. So they have merely said bring your plant over here and we'll make sure you make a big profit."


It means that shareholders of the American multinationals like Caterpillar may be doing well in the short term ? after all its share price has doubled in less than a year largely on demand from China and other emerging markets.


However, middle class Americans have not seen the benefits in terms of jobs created or wages increased.


When asked about GE's recently announced Chinese avionics joint venture and how he would look at it if he held GE shares, the Brookings Institution's Prasad said, "If I had GE shares in my 401(k) that I intended to hold for the next 20 years, I would be very worried," he said. "But if I was just holding them for short-term gain I wouldn't be concerned. And I suspect that's also how people inside GE look at it."


'Huge market'
For their part, the Chinese tend to view technology transfer as being fair trade for access to its growing manufacturing base and its potential as a consumer market of 1.3 billion people.


"The Chinese response is typically that multinationals have come to China because it has a huge market," Northwestern's Shih said. "The Chinese say that in doing so 'you have implicitly signed up for technology transfer as the price of entry to that market.'"


Criticism of subsidies also tends to fall flat as the Chinese point to subsidies for key industries and the farming sector in Europe and the U.S. as proof that they are not alone in supporting their own interests.


Rejection of Chinese bids for a number of American companies on national security grounds, including California oil company Unocal, have also allowed Beijing to allege that Washington has protectionist policies.


Certainly there is a sense that after many years of humiliation at the hands of foreign nations ? in particular in the 19th century when China was forced, in the words of the late British economist Angus Maddison, to cede a "welter of colonial enclaves" ? that the Chinese are merely returning to their place as a top power.


Just as many in the United States believe in "American exceptionalism," or the idea that the country is inherently superior to the rest of the world, the Chinese see a return to the top as their destiny.


"The Chinese feel they are returning to the level they were at 500 years ago and that it's where they belong," said Eamonn Fingleton, a writer who has been following China since the 1980s. "China sees no reason why it should not be the world's number one power."


And there are those in the United States who say that rather than fear competition from China, America should embrace and welcome it because the country's rise has been accompanied by cheap consumer goods that have kept a lid on inflation.


"The Chinese are going to move up the supply chain but they are not a threat to us," said Dan Griswold, who specializes in trade at the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank. "China merely wants to regain its rightful place among the leading economies of the world."


But there are a growing number of groups that seek to address what they say is America's China problem, and they are bringing together manufacturers, agricultural groups, labor unions and even the occasional local chamber of commerce.


'Free but fair trade'
"We believe in free but fair trade," said Tony Paglia, vice president for government affairs at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber of Commerce in northeastern Ohio, of the chamber's backing for proposed legislation that would impose duties on goods from countries that manipulated their currencies. "All we want is a level playing field for our members."


As well as handing over technology, multinationals like GE and Caterpillar have increasingly moved research and development to China, and experts like Hout worry that will cause America to lose its innovative edge.


"I'm afraid that they've managed to lure us into a bit of a trap," Hout said. "The Chinese are merely using a much older playbook and are holding our multinationals hostage."


Although American spending on R&D ($402 billion in 2010) is quadruple China's ($103 billion), Hout and Ghemawat estimate that at current growth levels China will catch up with U.S. spending by 2020. Factoring in what they estimate could be a 40 percent undervaluation for the yuan, they estimate that spending parity will come by 2016.


The real problem for America is that it has few easy alternatives when it comes to solving its Chinese puzzle and leveling that field.


Pressuring the Chinese government to allow the yuan to revalue seems a straightforward solution, for example, and is one that U.S. administrations have been suggesting for some time. Economists say a substantial revaluation would make a sizable dent in the U.S. trade and current account deficits.


But there would be a downside as well as positive consequences for Corporate America.


The large number of U.S. multinationals producing goods in China for export means that any significant appreciation would hurt their profits, said Sunil Chopra, a professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.


One politically sensitive consequence of an appreciation of the yuan could also come in the form of higher prices for consumers at retail stores, which would hurt poorer people hardest. "We get a major rise in import prices from China, who does it hurt the most?" Mesirow's Swonk asked. "People who shop at Walmart and Target."


Hout said that although the Obama administration has been more vocal about problem issues with China than his predecessor George W. Bush, America needs to take far bolder action.


"The United States is so wedded to the multinational processes of the WTO, which take forever and provide only rifle shot results," he said. "We've got all this stuff fleeing the United States and we've been very inactive when it comes to playing hardball."


"The obvious reaction would be to rely on reciprocity," he added. "If the Chinese insist that American firms have to form joint ventures in China and have to adhere to local content requirements, then the U.S. government should enact requirements for Chinese firms wishing to ship goods here that they must do likewise. But we've seen nothing from the U.S. government."


Getting tough
Others recommend getting tougher with China in the same way President Reagan got tough with Japan at times, by being willing to impose more customs duties or file more cases through bodies like the WTO.


Reagan, with the backing of his Commerce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige and a number of CEOs angry over Japanese trade policy, was unafraid to impose duties on Japanese goods. Reagan also brokered a semiconductor trade agreement with Japan that prevented the dumping of Japanese semiconductors on the U.S. market.


"They (Reagan and Baldrige) were the most activist leaders for a long time in defending U.S. manufacturing and took action necessary to do so," said Gil Kaplan, an international trade lawyer who worked in the Reagan administration. "They realized that we need a manufacturing sector in the United States."


Kaplan said that although proponents of free trade fear a trade war with China would be inevitable if the U.S. government took a tougher line on unfair subsidies, "we need to demonstrate that we are not afraid to take action."


"We do have to act now," he said. "At some point in time we're going to reach a tipping point where we won't be able to come back. In some industries so much of the supply chain has gone that it's going to be difficult to come back."


Kaplan and others say the government's actions do not necessarily have to be limited to taking action against the Chinese, but could take the form of greater support for American manufacturers.


Don't 'focus on the negative'
A common practice in developed nations, for instance, is to have a Value Added Tax that provides manufacturers with tax rebates as an added incentive to export goods.


"We don't just have to focus on the negative," said Tessera's Nothhaft. "We can find ways to support our own companies and make the playing field a little more level."


For many local manufacturers, the lack of a real public debate is discouraging to say the least. They feel disenfranchised, outgunned and outmaneuvered by the influential U.S. multinationals who argue for more free trade while small manufacturers want fair trade as well.


"The politicians in Washington don't represent you and me, they represent the special interests who pay their bills," said Richard Gill, president of Polyfab Corp, a plastic molding company in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. "Our decline is not inevitable. We can still turn this around. But things are going to get a lot worse if we don't do the right things to stop it."


Carleton College's Schier said "increased middle-class radicalism" shown by the power of the conservative Tea Party movement will likely be followed by increased radicalism in general as more voters are hurt by the decline of manufacturing and the lack of jobs more than two years after the height of the financial crisis.


"America's political elite would rather not give the debate much oxygen because they haven't come up with any real solutions," Schier said. "But the majority of the public has a sense there's something very wrong with our relations with China."


"It's a prescription for chronic instability," he said. "You can't build a long-term working majority in a situation like this. Voters are going to zig and zag and we'll likely see backlash after backlash."


Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

Thursday, April 28

NYT: China inflation is high risk for world trade

SHANGHAI?? As the United States and Europe struggle to get their economies rolling again, China is having the opposite problem: figuring out how to keep its revved-up growth engine from generating runaway inflation.


The latest sign that things were moving too fast came on Sunday, when China?s central bank ordered the biggest banks to set aside more cash reserves.


The move essentially reduces the amount of money available for loans, and is an attempt to cool down the economy. It follows the government announcement on Friday that China?s economy was growing at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, by far the strongest performance by any of the world?s biggest economies.


Because China is now the world?s second largest economy, after the United States, and because the country has been a leading source of global growth during the last two years, money problems here can reverberate from Wal-Mart to Wall Street and the world beyond.


High inflation endangers China?s status as the low-cost workshop for the world. And if the government?s efforts to fight inflation cause the economy to stumble, that will cloud the outlook for international businesses ? whether multinationals like General Electric or copper miners in Chile ? that have been counting on China for growth.


Internal threat
Inside China, inflation also poses a threat to social stability, a particular worry for Beijing, especially since authoritarian governments in North Africa and the Middle East have become the focus of popular uprisings.


?China?s inflation is a big concern, and actual numbers are worse than officially reported,? said Carmen M. Reinhart, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.


She says Beijing is engaged in an economic tug of war, trying to encourage sustainable growth while struggling to control inflation.


Food prices are soaring, and the government said on Friday that the consumer price index in March had risen 5.4 percent, its sharpest increase in nearly three years. Hoping to tame inflation, in the last six months Beijing has tightened restrictions on bank lending and raised interest rates on loans (to discourage borrowing) and deposits (to encourage savings).


The decision on Sunday to raise the capital reserve ratio for banks, to 20.5 percent of their cash, was the fourth such increase this year.


The government has also increased agricultural subsidies to curb food prices, and tried to forbid some Chinese companies from raising consumer prices. These efforts stand in contrast to those in the United States, where inflation is low (the underlying annual inflation rate was 1.2 percent last month) and where the debate centers on how much to stimulate the economy given the size of the deficit. Inflation is also running low in Europe, where some countries are imposing harsh austerity measures to pare their budget gaps.


But analysts say the results of this economic management have been mixed. Growth has begun to moderate from its torrid pace of about 10 percent annual growth but inflation has become worse.


For example, housing prices continue to climb even though Beijing has long promised to curb the property market and to spend billions of dollars over the next few years on affordable housing.


The average apartment in central Shanghai now costs more than $500,000. Even in second-tier cities like Chengdu, in central China, the price of a typical home costs about 25 times the average annual income of residents.


Analysts say too much of the country?s growth continues to be tied to inflationary spending on real estate development and government investment in roads, railways and other multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects.


In the first quarter of 2011, fixed asset investment ? a broad measure of building activity ? jumped 25 percent from the period a year earlier, and real estate investment soared 37 percent, the government said on Friday.


Some of the inflationary factors, like global commodity and food prices, may be beyond Beijing?s ability to influence. Gasoline prices have also jumped sharply, in line with global oil prices. As the world?s largest car market, China?s demand for fuel is soaring, and gasoline prices are close to $4.50 a gallon, up from $3.82 a gallon in late 2009.


Rising food prices, meanwhile, are showing up in various ways ? including higher prices at fast-food chains, like Master Kong, which in January raised the price of its popular instant noodles by about 10 percent.


Fearing the bubble
China?s current supercharged boom began in early 2009, during the global financial crisis, when Beijing moved aggressively to increase growth with a $586 billion stimulus package and record lending by state-run banks.


The loose monetary policy, and big investments in local government projects, did revive economic growth. But even at the time there were already concerns about soaring property prices, undisciplined bank lending and the huge debts being amassed by local governments.


The fear among some experts is that the bubble will eventually burst, leading to a wave of nonperforming loans at the big state-owned Chinese banks, which have been the main financiers of the nation?s phenomenal growth dating to the economic reforms in the 1980s.


Some economists have begun to argue that high inflation may be around for some time. Here again, the tug of war is evident.


To encourage the growth of a consumer market that will help meet the Chinese people?s demand to share the nation?s wealth, Beijing and many municipal governments have required employers to raise wages.


The government has raised minimum wages in the hope of reducing the big income gap between the rich and the poor, and the urban and rural. But higher wages drive up the costs of production, leading to higher prices. Some experts say rising wages may be an unavoidable inflationary force for years to come.


?China is moving into a new era, a new norm,? said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. ?In the previous decade, inflation was about 1.8 percent a year; in the next decade, it may be closer to 5 percent.?


The implications of such a shift are huge, not just for domestic consumers but perhaps even more so for exports. As wages and production costs rise, coastal factories are demanding higher prices for the goods they ship overseas. That means Americans, Europeans and other buyers will have to pay more for those goods or seek lower-cost suppliers elsewhere. In some cases, retailers are bidding for goods at prices the exporters consider too low.


?I hear that many Chinese exporters are rejecting orders from Wal-Mart and other Western retailers,? Mr. Tao said. ?I?ve been covering the Chinese economy for a long time, and I?ve never heard that before.?


'May take a long time'
Many analysts say the government is going to have to do even more to slow the economy, through measures like placing additional restrictions on lending and continuing to raise interest rates, the textbook methods of fighting inflation by tightening the nation?s money supply.


But the mixed results so far do not inspire widespread confidence. In fact, some experts say that despite the Communist Party?s efforts to manage the economy by committee, the absence of a top autonomous central banker ? Beijing has no equivalent of the United States Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke ? means no one actually has a hand on the growth throttle.


?The roots of inflation were laid down after the financial crisis, with the stimulus policy,? said Zhang Weiying, a professor of economics at Peking University.


After a big stimulus, stamping out inflation is not easy, Professor Zhang said. ?It may take a long time.?


Citizens like Wang Jianren, 56, a retiree in Shanghai, a bustling city of 20 million, say that over the years China has benefited from its rapid economic growth. But like so many here, he complains that inflation is beginning to erode those gains.


?Prices have gone up a lot,? Mr. Wang said at an indoor vegetable market on Friday. ?Unstable prices make people nervous and make society unstable. In this sense, our generation even has some nostalgia for Mao?s era.?


Xu Yan contributed research from Shanghai.


This article, "Soaring inflation poses risks beyond China's borders," originally appeared in The New York Times.


Copyright ? 2010 The New York Times

Thursday, April 21

China posts 1st quarterly trade deficit since 2004

BEIJING-China its first quarterly trade deficit since 2004 on the Sunday as reported rising prices for raw materials increased its import bill.

The General Administration of customs, said in an online statement that China a trade deficit of $1.02 billion from January to March of this year posted.

However, China a small trade surplus of 140 million $, reported in March, up from a deficit of $7.3 billion in the month, it said.

Export growth in the first quarter was strong, it said, 26.5 percent compared with the previous year to $399.64 billion increase but 32.6 percent increased imports during this period to $400.66 billion.

"The value of imports a record high for the first time by more than $400 billion hit in the first quarter," said the administration.

It said that China imported more mechanical and electrical equipment, including cars, as also iron ore and soybeans, as it was a year of action and that all the prices for these commodities had shot.

Analysts expect a global Chinese trade surplus this year of 160 billion dollar$ 200 billion but say, should the narrow if oil and commodity prices remain high. Last year, China ran a trade surplus of about $16 billion per month.

A smaller trade surplus could help tribes with Washington and other Governments who are complaining that give its exporters an unfair advantage with Exchange controls and other policies Beijing is to facilitate trade.

Stronger imports could economies of China's robust growth drive were looking demand for their help. Imports benefit dependence on exports and investment by ongoing Government efforts to boost consumer spending.

China is a major importer of oil, iron ore and raw materials, and runs a deficit with suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Australia. It pays for, by performing of multi-billion dollar surpluses with the United States and Europe.

___

Online:

General Administration of customs of China (in Chinese):

http://www.Customs.gov.CN

Copyright 2011, the associated press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or distributed.

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