Jobless claims drop for 2nd straight week as Sandy effect fades

12:00 PM claims, effect, fades, jobless, Sandy, straight No Comments

Reuters

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped for a second straight week last week, unwinding some of the storm-related surge, which has muddled the labor market picture.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 393,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to show 6,000 more applications than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 390,0000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, increased 7,500 to 405,250, the highest level since October last year.

Superstorm Sandy, which ripped through the East Coast in late October, has distorted initial claims data in recent weeks, making it hard to get a clear pulse of the labor market.

A Labor Department official said there was no pronounced impact of the storm in last week's data, adding that claims also tended to be volatile around this time of year.

The labor market improved in October, with employers adding 171,000 jobs to their payrolls, up from 148,000 the prior month. Economists say stripping out the three states - New York Connecticut and New Jersey - hardest hit by the storm, new applications for state unemployment benefits have been steady.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 70,000 to 3.29 million in the week ended November 17. So-called continuing claims covered the week of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived.

The jobless rate increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 7.9 percent in October, as more Americans - including those who had given up the search for work - entered the labor market.

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Jobless rate drop no surprise, despite political racket

8:30 AM despitepolitical, jobless, nosurprise, racket No Comments

The news Friday that the unemployment rate fell sharply to 7.8 percent just one month before the next presidential election heartened some observers and shocked others.

When you turn down the volume on all the political noise surrounding the report, however, what comes through is that the U.S. economy remains locked in a period of slow, steady job growth.

“It’s consistent with a slowly improving labor market where a few extra people are coming into the labor market,” said Joel Naroff, economist with Naroff Economic Advisors.

To understand why many economists might have that reaction, it helps to look at how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates its job market data – and why economists pay much more attention to long-term trends than the month-to-month changes that tend to dominate political rhetoric.

The unemployment data comes from two sources.

The first is a representative household survey of about 60,000 American households, which is conducted monthly.

The researchers count people as employed if they have worked in the past week, and they are considered unemployed if they haven’t worked but have actively looked for work in the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is not calculated based on who is collecting unemployment benefits.

The household survey, from which that 7.8 percent unemployment rate was calculated, is considered valuable because it includes self-employed people and others who might not show up in the payroll survey.

That’s the second source of data for the unemployment report. It’s compiled from a survey of about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, which account for about one-third of all nonfarm payroll employees.

That’s the data that is used to calculate the payroll figure, which in Friday’s report showed that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000 in September.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics takes great pains to warn people that only relatively large changes in each set of data are considered statistically significant. For the payroll survey, a change of about 100,000 is considered statistically significant, and for the household survey a statistically significant change would be about 400,000, according to the BLS.

“The labor force numbers do bounce violently around,” Naroff said.

For example, Naroff noted, the civilian labor force grew by 418,000 in September, but it shrank by 368,000 in August. If you look over a long period, the trend is much more stable, with slightly more than 1 million people in the labor force than a year earlier.

That’s why even though politicians may focus on month-to-month changes, economists are often more interested in the long-term trends. In that context, Friday’s employment report number was consistent with a labor market that has slowly and painfully been working its way back to life.

“This is encouraging stuff,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

Ashworth noted that the unemployment rate has fallen by half a percentage point in the last two months, from 8.3 percent to 7.8 percent. But the unemployment rate was also at 8.3 percent in January, and it is down from 9 percent a year earlier. He said it’s not uncommon for job market data to move out of step with other economic data.

In a research note, economist Dean Baker with the liberal-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research noted that it’s common to have big monthly swings in the employment data, and said the September report may well be a statistical fluke.

“Still,” he added, “this month’s numbers almost certainly indicate that the unemployment rate is moving downward, even if the speed is considerably slower than the latest data indicate.”

The White House released a statement Friday saying the employment report marked progress in the nation's slow economic recovery.

"While there is more work that remains to be done, today's employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression," said Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

But the big drop in the unemployment rate had some conservatives crying foul about the accuracy of the data so close to the presidential election. Rep. Allen West, a Republican from Florida, was among those who accused Democrats of trying to make the unemployment situation look better than it is.

"Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the Presidential election," West said on his Facebook page.

U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis said all the talk about data manipulation was absurd. "I'm insulted when I hear that, because we have a very professional civil service organization. These are our best trained and most skilled individuals," Solis told CNBC. "It's really ludicrous to hear that kind of statement."

It’s not uncommon for unemployment figures to be revised later to reflect refinements in calculations, but economists said that's usually a result of a better understanding of the labor market, rather than any deliberate attempt to tweak the data.

“No mainstream economists, as far as I’m aware, would question whether the statistics have been deliberately manipulated,” Ashworth said.

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Jobless claims rise slightly, hiring at sluggish pace

12:30 PM claims, hiring, jobless, slightly, sluggish No Comments

CNBC's Rick Santelli breaks down the latest weekly unemployment numbers and discusses its impact on the markets and economy, with CNBC's Steve Liesman.

By NBC News staff and wire reports
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose slightly in the latest week, indicating a labor market that remains in the doldrums.

The Labor Department reported that new claims rose a seasonally-adjusted 4,000 to 367,000, while the four-week moving average, considered a more accurate gauge of labor market conditions, was flat at 375,000.

The data came a day after President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney squared off in their first debate, which focused mostly on the economy, and a day before the crucial monthly employment report from the government.

The level of jobless claims in the latest week indicates only modest hiring, far below the levels needed to put a dent in the 8.1 percent unemployment rate.

"They are not very inspiring. It is a very marginal reversal of last week's marginal declines. This suggests that the trend is still looking fairly stable. The labor market is improving but it is not really gathering direction for better or worse, it is still just plodding along," said economist Sean Incremona at 4Cast Ltd.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 370,0000 last week. It was the first time since December last year that the four-week average was unchanged.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report and no states had been estimated.

'Discouraged' workers face tough road back to employmentDespite fears of tighter fiscal policy next January, there is little sign that companies are responding by laying off workers on a wide scale.

Last week's claims data fell outside the survey period for the September employment report, but applications dropped 18,000 from the first week of the month, signaling some improvement in the pace of job creation last month.

Employers are expected to have added 113,000 jobs to their payrolls in September, an increase from 96,000 in August, with the unemployment rate edging up by a tenth of a percentage point to 8.2 percent, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

The anticipated modest improvement in labor market conditions has also been telegraphed by increases in measures of manufacturing and service sector jobs in September. In addition, payrolls processor ADP on Wednesday reported better than expected private sector jobs gains in September.

Worries over the so-called fiscal cliff - automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts that will suck about $600 billion out of the economy next year if lawmakers fail to agree how to slash the budget deficit - are making businesses cautious about ramping up hiring.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid was unchanged at 3.28 million in the week ended September 22. It was the first time since December last year that so-called continuing claims were unchanged.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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Jobless claims jump as job market struggles

8:00 AM claims, jobless, market, struggles No Comments

New claims for unemployment aid rose unexpectedly in the latest week, signaling that the labor market remained on the defensive and the recovery was stumbling along.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that claims rose a seasonally-adjusted 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9. Even the four-week moving average, considered a more accurate gauge of the labor market, jumped, gaining 3,500 to 382,000. It was the measure's third straight week of gains.

Economists had been expecting new claims to drop to 375,000.

"We've been on the higher side for the past two months on average. You cannot explain this away with normal random volatility. It has not been a marked deterioration, but there has been some slippage in the strength in the labor market," Michael Moran, chief economist for Daiwa Securities, told Reuters.

The report was another in a series of setbacks for those seeking an improvement in the job market. Among them: President Barack Obama who is running for reelection and needs the economy's cooperation in his battle against his GOP rival Mitt Romney.

The rise in jobless claims over the past few weeks suggests that hiring has slowed and the pace of layoffs has quickened as U.S. businesses react warily to a sluggish recovery at home and the financial crisis in Europe.

CNBC's Rick Santelli breaks down the latest numbers on jobless claims & Consumer Price Index, and a look at the impact on the market, with CNBC's Steve Liesman.

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Jobless claims offer no solace for recovery worries

8:00 PM claims, jobless, offer, Recovery, solace, worries No Comments

Elaine Thompson / AP

Job seekers line the hall at a job fair in SeaTac, Wash. The number of people requesting unemployment benefits last week dropped slightly, but the four-week moving average rose sharply.

By msnbc.com staff and news wires
Slightly fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the latest week, but a more accurate gauge of labor market trends -- the four-week moving average -- deteriorated, raising further worries about the recovery.

The Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted jobless claims slipped by 1,000 to 388,000 in the week ended April 21. The four-week moving average, however, rose by 6,250 to 381,750.

Both claims' gauges remain below 400,000, at least for now, but have been edging closer to a number that economists believe is a crucial signpost for the health of the job market.

"This was a disappointing number and offers more evidence that the labor market continues to lose traction," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst with Western Union Business Solutions.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new claims falling to 375,000 last week.

The reading was the latest example of fizzling momentum in the labor market recovery. New claims fell sharply during early winter but the improvement has largely stalled in recent weeks.

Employers added 120,000 new jobs to their payrolls in March, the least since October, after averaging 246,000 jobs per month over the prior three months.

Many economists believe a mild winter boosted payrolls growth earlier in the year and view recent stagnation as payback for those gains.

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data in the claims report.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 3,000 to 3.315 million in the week ended April 14.

The number of Americans on emergency unemployment benefits fell 45,930 to 2.73 million in the week ended April 7, the latest week for which data is available.

A total of 6.68 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, down 87,160 from the prior week

Reuters contributed to this report.

Squawk Box host Andrew Ross Sorkin and his twins, Henry and Max Sorkin, along with CNBC's Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman break down the latest numbers on jobless claims and what it indicates about the U.S. economic recovery.

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Jobless claims slide to four-year low

3:44 AM claims, fouryear, jobless, slide No Comments

By msnbc.com staff and wire reports

The labor market got some more good news Thursday when the government reported that news claims for unemployment benefits dropped back down to a four-year low.

The Labor Department said Thursday that seasonally adjusted new jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 351,000 in the week ended March 10. The four-week moving average, considered a more accurate gauge of the labor market's health, was unchanged at 355,750.

The prior week's figure was revised up to 365,000 from the previously reported 362,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 356,000 last week.

First-time applications for jobless benefits have been tucked in a tight range since mid-February, a hopeful sign for the labor market, which has enjoyed three straight months of employment gains above 200,000.

The jobless rate held at a three-year low of 8.3 percent in February.

While the Federal Reserve on Tuesday acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market, it remained concerned with the still-high unemployment rate.

The U.S. central bank said it expected the jobless rate, which has declined 0.8 percentage point since August, to "gradually" decline.

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data and that no states had been estimated.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid declined 81,000 to 3.34 million in the week ended March 3 - the lowest level since August 2008.

Despite the improving labor market picture, long-term unemployment remains a huge problem and about 43 percent of the 12.8 million out of work Americans in February had been jobless for more than six months.

The number of Americans on emergency unemployment benefits fell 53,415 to 2.88 million in the week ended February 25, the latest week for which data is available.

A total of 7.42 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, up 36,392 from the prior week.

Do you feel the evidence is mounting that the labor market is improving? Let us know on Facebook.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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Engineer who gave Obama resume still jobless

9:47 PM Engineer, jobless, Obama, resume, still No Comments

A Fort Worth semiconductor engineer who sent his resume to the president after a social media chat is still looking for work.

Darin Wedel, who was laid off three years ago, has turned down several job offers since sending his resume to the White House because the jobs were not located in North Texas.

President Barack Obama asked for his resume when his wife asked in a Google+ chat why the federal government continued to issue H-1B visas to foreign workers when people such as her husband could not find a job.

The exchange attracted national attention.

Jennifer Wedel said her husband has gotten calls from around the United States. The White House contacted some of the companies on the Wedels' behalf, she said.

"We had the head guy from Intel call us and basically said, 'If you move to New York, we'll get you a job.' ... It kind of gets me teary-eyed, because I wish we could," Jennifer Wedel said.

Darin Wedel turned down the offer from Intel as well as three other out-of-state jobs and one in Austin because his custody agreement does not allow him to move away from his daughter's mother, who lives in the area.

The couple said they knew their options might be limited when Darin Wedel was laid off. They said they are not frustrated and are incredibly thankful for the interest.

And Darin Wedel has a local lead — a job interview next week in Corinth.

In a Google+ hangout on Jan. 30, Jennifer Wedel asked Obama about the country's H-1B visa program.

The visa allows employers to temporarily hire a limited number of foreign workers in certain occupations, including science, engineering, medicine and the arts. The jobs generally require specialized knowledge.

When Darin Wedel was laid off in 2008, Texas Instruments had some H-1B workers.

Wedel told The Washington Post he was laid off because of a plant closing.

His wife, an insurance agent at State Farm, said she has found herself as a sort of spokeswoman working to make it so Americans have the first chance to get a job before foreign workers.

She said people from all over the country have reached out to her and told her stories similar to her husband's.

"I have clients who are struggling to pay their insurance bills because they have gotten laid off, and a number of those have been in the same industry that my husband is in," she said.

U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, emailed her Wednesday morning and told her that he is going to try to breathe new life into a proposal to modify the H-1B visa program.

Grassley said he and Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, tried to pass a measure in 2009 that would require employers to make a reasonable effort to recruit Americans for jobs before they could hire H-1B workers.

Jennifer Wedel said she and her husband are humbled that their experience is bringing attention to the issue.

"I think it is fulfilling," she said. "I think it will be more fulfilling when we see change."

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