Wednesday, October 30

4 Better than the Twitter IPO stakes

| By David Milstead, Kiplinger

It's not that Twitter could be a good investment. But investors should wait to leave 90 days on each IPO, the hype fall silent and allow the rational analysis.

Here's our advice for Twitter IPO, summarized in less than 140 characters: do not invest in the Twitter-IPO.

It's not that Twitter will prove to be no good investment stock. Maybe it will be. Or maybe it won't. The time will show. But our advice for all IPO is at least 90 days before sale in wait. Enough time for the hype to die down and rational analysis of company prospects can apply to.

This approach paid off nicely with the IPO of Facebook (FB). The stock made his debut on May 18, 2012, to $38. At the end of the session had its price just 23 cents, defying widespread predictions of a massive gained on the first day pop. Three months after the IPO, Facebook was up to $20 as opportunistic investors who bought at that time a 160% return (all prices stand October 17) enjoyed.

IPO expert Josef Schuster says that the risk for the individual investor caught in the buzz about hot IPOs is preserved, which later crash with views of less attractive "cold offerings."

"Our great interpreters of boring IPOs, the the individual investor-like HCA holdings (HCA), can it not do anything for a long time and is now neglected at all-time highs trading are", says Schuster, who runs a Chicago IPO research firm IPOX Schuster LLC. "Dollar General (DG)-there was no 'hot IPO'." It not about the first day. But it was in the long run."

Schuster creates an index of shares that come as IPOs or corporate spin-offs on the market. The index is the basis of an exchange traded fund, the first trust US IPO index (FPX). Schuster's rules for its index indicate that an IPO at the earliest six days are added after it debuts, to avoid the volatility of the first couple of sessions.

Check the investment in the ETF for wide exposure to the IPO market. The Fund is so far better than 24 percent of the standard & poor's 500index ($INX) back--38 percent year.

Looking for individual stocks? A number of IPOs that have made cold, since their debuts in the last few years investors with an appetite for out-of-favor stocks can intrigue. Here are four worthy of consideration:

SeaWorld entertainment(SEAS) Shamus owner went in April with a splash on the first day of the match. Sales growth of more than 7 percent, Cedar Fair (FUN) and Six Flags Entertainment (six) prebooked IPO 2012 better. In its first report as a public company, SeaWorlds result among analysts, however, was forecasts. Investors were frightened 2013 on the news of a 9.5 percent decline in the number of visitors in the second quarter. The shares at $29,57 now trade below their first day close and are valued at the price of 22 times 2014 earnings. SeaWorld's stock yields 2.7 percent.

In the second quarter, participating in almost all SeaWorld parks hurt bad weather. But the visitors who participated were more coming in, says analyst issued by Barclays Capital Felicia Hendrix, and more for concessions, once they were inside increase revenue per subscriber to 6.7 percent. Hendrix says that the performance of the company second-half short term affect the share price. In the long run keeping the strong brands of the company, including Busch Gardens and SeaWorld parks, filled to the brim-filled state coffers's namesake.

TRI Pointe homes(TPH) and ply gem holdings (PGEM) went this year as in the United States real estate market showed signs of life after the recession. Each stock won more than 10 percent on the first day of trading. Recently they have started but both fears, that the housing rebound in its title will stop rising mortgage interest rates.

TRI-Pointe is a homebuilder in Colorado and his native California. Analyst Steve Stelmach of FBR capital markets, who has a "buy" rating on the stock, says the company has a strong portfolio of country and generates purchase orders in a better than expected pace. Shares well below Stelmach are $24 price target at $13.92.

Ply gem sold builders, including siding, Windows and doors, construction products. Expectations a slowing recovery in house building accompanied recently analyst Daniel Oppenheim, Credit Suisse, the price target to reduce its "buy" rating on $21-43 percent higher than the current level of $14.68.

Millennial Media(MM) was a hot IPO, 92 percent jump on the first day of trading in March 2012. But investors quickly sour missed some analysts as a provider of mobile advertising financial planning in its first report as a public company. Today, at $6.88 is his all time high by a quarter.

Millennial Media has great competitive- Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) - but he claims, the largest company that is not connected with an operating system or a mobile device. It is collecting samples, purchase privately held competitors JumpTap in the stock and cash offer initially estimated to be about $200 million.

The risk of acquiring large, coupled with the recent financial results that missed a number of analysts have to forecast of management "Reviews keep" led. But analysts say there is plenty of potential in a company, reported that a gain of 45 percent revenue growth in the second quarter. "The share current rating probably not enough credits expected growth will be", says Michael Graham, of Canaccord Genuity, whose 12-month price target of $10 an increase of 45 percent from current levels by represents.

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