Sunday, February 2

Fear of stocks right now? Try raw materials

| By Jeff Cox, CNBC

With many investors of high-priced shares suspicious say some experts, there are opportunities in industrial metals and grains, such as global growth continues.

With the growing number of calls for a major stock market retreat is an area expected to start investor inflows were seen.

The room has suffered a couple of hard years since the so-called commodity Supercycle broke. Strong supply with different cultures, shaky global economic growth and a meltdown in gold and other metals, to tell the prices and money into shares.

But the damage can be done, what the conditions for a recovery. Experts see opportunities in metals outside gold, as well as selected agricultural commodities.

Raw material-watchers believe that the market is approaching a point, where it has traded in the commodities downturn and is ready to swing the other way.

"There is an argument that were solid in disgrace, gone," said Nick Brooks, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities. "I would argue that they in fact were ignored as an asset class."

Brooks bull market for commodities is based partly on the believe that gold was the reason for the obesity of the negative perceptions.

In 2013 about a quarter was exchange-traded products of their assets under management, with this sum to $122 billion. Of this $78 billion in outflows, but full of $25 billion of ETF came SPDR gold trust shares (GLD), during the iShares gold trust (IAU) a further $2.4 billion was, while several other metals-related funds lost, according to IndexUniverse.

"If you break the numbers in detail, 91 percent of managed assets under management was decline due to gold," said Brooks. "Commodity ETFs except gold, traded outflows for less than 1 percent of the overall decline."

If early 2014 keep trends that is likely to change.

Gold jumped out of the gate, strong growth in the first few weeks of the January book. Elsewhere appeared precious metals, Platinum strong gains as the stock market wobbled and bond yields pulled back.

For the full year, Brooks anticipates a general improvement in global growth story, the driving force behind malware to be price appreciation.

"To the extent that the continued healthy growth of from the United States and China we see continue, there could be some disappointments in light of aggressive expectations in place," he said. "Raw materials tend to a later date, cyclical asset, so that it was not abnormal for merchandise to a rally in stocks."

Of course, there is a headwind.

Oil prices, could for example say, as a semblance of order is restored in the Middle East.

And policy Federal Reserve may not particularly friendly to the room as well as the Central Bank pulls back on its quantitative easing program. The U.S. dollar, a move increase the reduction of monthly purchases by January and mortgage-backed securities, is likely, which historically can be rough on raw materials.

But when the stock market comes next and a 10-percent correction phase its withdrawal, as many Wall Street forecasters are predicting that investors looking back, at least until they are brave enough, start, get to buy the equity dip.

"If the S - & P-500 ($INX) is started, give a little, we will see, start some roles in this asset,", said Michael Gurka, Managing Director of spectrum asset management in Chicago. "The correction is definitely here."

Over a period of time Gurka believes industrial metals and grain will surpass.

While Brooks, that gold is likely in a trading range, the it between $1,200 and 1,400 thinks $ will keep, he sees lots of opportunities in other metals such as Platinum and Palladium.

"I don't think (global growth) in the raw material prices, has been taken into account" he said. "Investors focused on the supply side increases of raw materials and have less focus has been, so that you are on the demand side." "If the US economy continues to power ahead and China managed to get 7 to 8 percent growth in 2014, so has that the potential to lift the commodity prices."

0 коммент.:

Post a Comment

Site Search